nVidia better be happy now it is all downhill for them rest of this decade

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Zorachus

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nVidia may be riding high this past year or two, but I believe it will be all down hill for them after 2008, meaning the 9800 series coming soon will be their last big money maker, and I am sure again another top dog performer.

But in 2008 we have AMD coming out with their R700 and it will be no slouch, plus they have CPU's and Motherboard Chipsets to produce and sell to OEM's which = huge profits, where are nVidia's cpu's ??

Then in 2009 the VideoCard market gets a HUGE shakeup from Intel entering into the ring, and knowing Intel and all the work they are putting into their first Card it will be a killer I am sure, up their to compete big time with nVidia and ATI/AMD. Plus Intel sells cpu's and Motherboard chispets = huge profits.

My whole point here is that AMD has cpu's, motherboards, and gpu's to sell. Intel has cpu's, motherboards, and soon gpu's to sell. Where will that leave nVidia in 2009 ?? I am sure Intel will market package deals to OEM's of their own Intel brand chipsets, cpu's and gpu's as a combo deal and stop making nVidia boards ??
 
I do not think Intel is going to come out and dominate the GPU market with their first launch. I could be wrong, but I do not see it happening.
 
ummm... I think that you left out the part where AMD has lost somewhere around 6 billion this year?
 
Every computer I have purchased has been powered by an AMD CPU... but it is obvious AMD has lost the performance crown. They're struggling to stay alive. They've had to repeatedly slash the cost of their CPUS. the FX-62 sold for almost a thousand months ago - now it goes for $150ish.
 
nvidia does have the potential to be squeezed on both sides of their business. But they have no reason to make an x86 CPU and it's success does not depend any on such arbitrary demand.

I wouldn't exactly point to AMD/ATI's execution in the last year as anything for nvidia to worry about on the GPU front. :p And anyways, by the time AMD has R700, nvidia will also have a new high end chip. It's hard to judge how it will compete, but the NV3x series seemed to have been an exception to otherwise excellent execution since the Riva128.

And further, ATI is probably in the weakest position ever to push technology to leading edge developers.
 
I know AMD looks very bad right now, but I think 2008 will be there rebound year, won't be great but enough to keep them going, and then in 2009 they really need some powerful new stuff to get a good foothold. But next year AMD will have the R700 to give back respectability, and the Phenom QuadCore cpu's once clocked at 3.0ghz+ should be good performers and help get the geeks back.

Intel I think will have a high end nice VideoCard out in 2009 to compete with both nVidia and AMD, plus their cpu's and motherboards have always been good for them.

So in 2009 nVidia will only have their 10800GTX, which could be good or could be another 5900, and what else do they have to offer ?? Beside getting squeezed that same year from AMD and Intel gpu's
 
iapetus said:
ummm... I think that you left out the part where AMD has lost somewhere around 6 billion this year?
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It was actually $2 billion in the last 12 months. But there is very little of AMD left to hack off as it has done in other lean times in the past.
 
Zorachus said:
nVidia may be riding high this past year or two, but I believe it will be all down hill for them after 2008, meaning the 9800 series coming soon will be their last big money maker, and I am sure again another top dog performer.

But in 2008 we have AMD coming out with their R700 and it will be no slouch, plus they have CPU's and Motherboard Chipsets to produce and sell to OEM's which = huge profits, where are nVidia's cpu's ??

Then in 2009 the VideoCard market gets a HUGE shakeup from Intel entering into the ring, and knowing Intel and all the work they are putting into their first Card it will be a killer I am sure, up their to compete big time with nVidia and ATI/AMD. Plus Intel sells cpu's and Motherboard chispets = huge profits.

My whole point here is that AMD has cpu's, motherboards, and gpu's to sell. Intel has cpu's, motherboards, and soon gpu's to sell. Where will that leave nVidia in 2009 ?? I am sure Intel will market package deals to OEM's of their own Intel brand chipsets, cpu's and gpu's as a combo deal and stop making nVidia boards ??
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Maybe the margins are higher on videocards, and Nvidia does not wish to delve into other production types?

Just because you produce one type of product, while your competitors produce several, does not mean they have a better business model, or that you will fail if you dont. Video cards are already a niche market, so I dont see any of this having real relevance to Nvidia's business (aside from the launch of a second competitor, which, if nvidia continues to make better products, will not mean much).
 
pxc said:
It was actually $2 billion in the last 12 months. But there is very little of AMD left to hack off as it has done in other lean times in the past.
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They've got that huge elephant on their back they can still hack off :D
 
If AMD/ATi uses the technology they have to come out with a multicore GPU they will dominate all. But then again they are quite a bit in debt, so I dont see them having much left for research and development. Really I think the next big step is going to be a multicore GPU. Not like the GX2, a full blown GPU with 2+ cores in one unit. ATi has 55nm technology out currently and if they got that down to 45nm they could be able to make multicore GPU that is heat efficient. Looking at Nvidia they arent even close to coming out with something that wouldn't melt away everything around it with more then 1 core.
 
I love how a couple months ago everyone was saying that R600 was AMD's saving grace. Now its R700 :p

Nvidia specializes in GPU's, AMD and Intel have CPU's, chipsets and motherboards to focus on too. Meaning Nvidia can pour all of it's profits into R&D for just GPU's. Not to mention their NForce line isnt doing to shabby either.
 
ryan_975 said:
They've got that huge elephant on their back they can still hack off :D
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I don't think they can sell off ATI until they finish paying for it. And I don't know it it's linked to any other loans either. In any case, AMD would take a huge hit selling off ATI now. AMD overpaid and Wrector Ruinz has worked pretty hard the last year to run it into the ground.
 
pxc said:
I don't think they can sell off ATI until they finish paying for it. And I don't know it it's linked to any other loans either. In any case, AMD would take a huge hit selling off ATI now. AMD overpaid and Wrector Ruinz has worked pretty hard the last year to run it into the ground.
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No I meant it the other way. ATI with the elephant on their back.
 
pandora's box said:
I love how a couple months ago everyone was saying that R600 was AMD's saving grace. Now its R700 :p

Nvidia specializes in GPU's, AMD and Intel have CPU's, chipsets and motherboards to focus on too. Meaning Nvidia can pour all of it's profits into R&D for just GPU's. Not to mention their NForce line isnt doing to shabby either.
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The R600 was known before hand to be under performer, or not the 8800Ultra all geeks dreamed for. But the R700 has been speculated for a long long time already,, not nearly the same as R600 was. The R700 will be ground breaking you watch, I am betting the first real DualCore gpu, not just a GX2, but a real deal single card with 2 gpu's built in, they have AMD tech to combine with ATI technology

Where is nVidia anyways ?? They told all their business partners to expect a 1TF VideoCard by the end of the year, well where is that card ?? Wonder if the 9800GTX is not really the same speed jump as 2-8800GTX's everyone thinks it should be
 
Nemik8800 said:
If AMD/ATi uses the technology they have to come out with a multicore GPU they will dominate all. But then again they are quite a bit in debt, so I dont see them having much left for research and development. Really I think the next big step is going to be a multicore GPU. Not like the GX2, a full blown GPU with 2+ cores in one unit. ATi has 55nm technology out currently and if they got that down to 45nm they could be able to make multicore GPU that is heat efficient. Looking at Nvidia they arent even close to coming out with something that wouldn't melt away everything around it with more then 1 core.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the 8800GTX technically a 128-core GPU? If you look at the diagram ( http://enthusiast.hardocp.com/image.html?image=MTE2Mjg1NDM5NDdlWWVIY2F3WlVfNV8xX2wuanBn - dug this up :D), it looks to me like each SP is fairly independent given its unified architecture. GPUs are already massively parallel, it isn't like a CPU....
 
I know Intel is a powerful company with a lot of talented people, but the GPU business doesn't favor newcomers or re-entry wanabe's. Intel hasn't put out a competitive video part since the i960 days. Remember when S3 was going to come roaring back with the Chrome series? Or Matrox with the Parhelia? Then there was the Kyro II, which once had a hopeful future as a David among the Goliaths.

All of that to say, it isn't easy to "bring it" with a new GPU lineup in the marketplace, whether you're big or small, new or old.

Starbuck's just sells coffee. How can it compete with DunkinDonuts, which sells so much more? Where do people go in the morning before work these days? To the place that does one thing better than anyone else.
 
nVidia is doing fine as a video card company and will likely continue to do fine. One thing that they've always been better than ATI at is releasing well-priced mid-range cards, which is why the 7900GT and GS sold so well even while ATI's high-end cards were faster and had better image quality than nVidia's cards. In addition, nVidia still makes the best chipsets for AMD CPUs, and ATI's chipset tech that AMD inherited still can't match up. As long as AMD is still in business, nVidia will at least have a place in the market for their chipsets. Basically, I don't see nVidia going under in the foreseeable future.
 
kllrnohj said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the 8800GTX technically a 128-core GPU? If you look at the diagram ( http://enthusiast.hardocp.com/image.html?image=MTE2Mjg1NDM5NDdlWWVIY2F3WlVfNV8xX2wuanBn - dug this up :D), it looks to me like each SP is fairly independent given its unified architecture. GPUs are already massively parallel, it isn't like a CPU....
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Maybe what he is saying what if they made a card with two 8800GTX core's on one card ?? Imagine two separate 8800 single chips paired up onto on card that would be DualCore I believe ??
 
I'll just wait and see what happens, enjoy the ride, and leave the speculation to the professionals :p
 
Zorachus said:
The R600 was known before hand to be under performer, or not the 8800Ultra all geeks dreamed for. But the R700 has been speculated for a long long time already,, not nearly the same as R600 was. The R700 will be ground breaking you watch, I am betting the first real DualCore gpu, not just a GX2, but a real deal single card with 2 gpu's built in, they have AMD tech to combine with ATI technology

Where is nVidia anyways ?? They told all their business partners to expect a 1TF VideoCard by the end of the year, well where is that card ?? Wonder if the 9800GTX is not really the same speed jump as 2-8800GTX's everyone thinks it should be
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where are you getting all this information???? are you just blowing smoke??
 
I'll be upgrading to an all AMD system in '08, provided the performance is there.
 
Zorachus said:
The R600 was known before hand to be under performer, or not the 8800Ultra all geeks dreamed for.
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We knew that, even though AMD kept saying otherwise.

Zorachus said:
But the R700 has been speculated for a long long time already,, not nearly the same as R600 was. The R700 will be ground breaking you watch,
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I dont mean to be an ass, but thats exactly what they said about the R600.

Zorachus said:
I am betting the first real DualCore gpu, not just a GX2, but a real deal single card with 2 gpu's built in, they have AMD tech to combine with ATI technology
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Just because Ford owns Jaguar doesnt mean things are looking up for Jaguar.
I applaud you for your rosy outlook, but I wouldn't count on stock market ownership being ATi's next card's saving grace.
That being said, Im betting the next ATi card will be powered by a leprechaun in a cage named "Farfulnuken"

Zorachus said:
Where is nVidia anyways ??
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Still waiting for AMD to catch up to last years card.

Zorachus said:
They told all their business partners to expect a 1TF VideoCard by the end of the year, well where is that card ??
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Still time for another card. I suspect the 8800GT to just be a space filler. Offering excellent performance at less then the ATi flagship.
Still 2 months before the end of the year. Even if for some reason it is delayed, I dont think anyone would care. The amazing R600 was delayed over and over.

Zorachus said:
Wonder if the 9800GTX is not really the same speed jump as 2-8800GTX's everyone thinks it should be
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The reality is, that Nvidia delivered with the 8800GTS, 8800GT, 8800GTX, and 8800Ultra
Thats four card classes that delivered phenomenal performance...basically a year old. It may have been released in different forums, but the reality is, that they delivered more then ATi could even with an extra year of development time and the competitions card in hand.
The 8800 has been around for some time now. Released in different versions of the same card, but nothing here is exactly new. People who think that the 8800GT is all that Nvidia has up its sleeve need to wake up. A full extra cycle to R&D the next gen card....Its not over yet.

I hope all the best for ATi/AMD. The last thing anyone wants is a 1 brand market. But the fact of the matter is that Nvidia is doing just fine...fine enough that it can avoid releasing a new high end until it needs to. The idea that multicore CPUs will replace videocards is not what is happening.

cheers
 
1: Nvidia is doing great.
2: ...
3: Nvidia loses.

Yeaaaah. That entire second step looks... problematic.

Provided Nvidia doesn't pull another FX (I still have a 5900nu lying around, so I can bitch about em), they'll be fine for the foreseeable future. Fanboyism aside, Nvidia is winning on the enthusiast side right now, and winning in a big way. The 8800GT as a $230 part is just absolutely nuts. I'm interested in seeing how AMD will respond, but I honestly don't see them beating that sort of value with current gen parts without essentially nuking their profit margin.

As I already have a GTS640, I'm not really too interested in this release. Awesome value, but not really a worthwhile upgrade for my situation. However, if this is the new low-midrange, what in the name of all that is good and holy will the approaching high end part be like? Exciting times, folks.
 
I hope ATI/AMD comes back, I have never had good luck with nvidia cards untill the 7800GT. All my other nvidia cards have died or had to be RMA'ed 4 times or so before I got a working card, while my 9800 np flashed to a pro is still running like new and has been in a few computers now. All my old Nvidia cards are dead... GF1, and 4 GF4's (one GF4 is still alive).

Always liked Nvidia drivers a bit better, but ATI quality has been > Nvidias in my personal experience.

I'm kind of hoping I do not have to purchase another Nvidia card, although it won't be the end of the world if I do ;)
 
Zorachus said:
Maybe what he is saying what if they made a card with two 8800GTX core's on one card ?? Imagine two separate 8800 single chips paired up onto on card that would be DualCore I believe ??
Click to expand...
2 GPUs in one unit that would be the same size as the current processor in the 8800GTX. Basically I am talking about steping up like Intel did. Instead of working on clockspeed, work on architecture and fitting more stuff into a smaller area. But in essences yes, shoving 2 8800GTX GPU's or better into 1 chip. But I really don't know how they would market since that chinese named dude or what ever says they have like 128 processors? This is why im taking electronic engineering next semester lol.
 
The 2900 was gonna be a killer 2. Amd sells cpu's but ownestly who would wanna buy one atm or ever since Intel released the core 2. Amd can pritty much only cater for people who are buying budget cpu's. I havn't seen any new on anything good comming either. i mean tri-core, hey lets make a quad core and disable a core that sounds like an awsome idea, no its stupid. And their motherboards, who actualy owns one and why? for crossfire you can get that on an intel chipset which caps all over amds chipsets. Hence amd's poor performance someone mentioned they lost 6 billion.

As far as intel entering the graphics market i doubt they will be able to compete in the high end market. If amd/ati are struggeling with all their experience then i doubt intel will be able too. But i might be wrong, intel could replace AMD as the next biggest compeditor.

I think its AMD that looks in trouble not Nvidia.
 
Zorachus said:
nVidia may be riding high this past year or two, but I believe it will be all down hill for them after 2008, meaning the 9800 series coming soon will be their last big money maker, and I am sure again another top dog performer.

But in 2008 we have AMD coming out with their R700 and it will be no slouch, plus they have CPU's and Motherboard Chipsets to produce and sell to OEM's which = huge profits, where are nVidia's cpu's ??

Then in 2009 the VideoCard market gets a HUGE shakeup from Intel entering into the ring, and knowing Intel and all the work they are putting into their first Card it will be a killer I am sure, up their to compete big time with nVidia and ATI/AMD. Plus Intel sells cpu's and Motherboard chispets = huge profits.

My whole point here is that AMD has cpu's, motherboards, and gpu's to sell. Intel has cpu's, motherboards, and soon gpu's to sell. Where will that leave nVidia in 2009 ?? I am sure Intel will market package deals to OEM's of their own Intel brand chipsets, cpu's and gpu's as a combo deal and stop making nVidia boards ??
Click to expand...

Its good that you based all this in so many facts and evidence other wise it wouldnt be worth crap....err wait a second, there is no evidence just some wishful thinking ,..yeah nice bait my friend.
You keep saving for those amazing future products... :rolleyes:
 
I dont see NVidia going anywhere.

I dont see Intel coming in and dominating anything.

ATI could make a comeback I GUESS but Ill believe that when I see it.
 
jaegertech said:
As I already have a GTS640, I'm not really too interested in this release. Awesome value, but not really a worthwhile upgrade for my situation. However, if this is the new low-midrange, what in the name of all that is good and holy will the approaching high end part be like? Exciting times, folks.
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same thing i was thinking :eek:

nvidia > ati as far as performance

driver stability = ati > nvidia

if nvidia had both i would never look at ati again :D
 
Nemik8800 said:
But I really don't know how they would market since that chinese named dude or what ever says they have like 128 processors? This is why im taking electronic engineering next semester lol.
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Did you just call me Chinese? I assure you, I am 100% American Caucasian :p

The idea that multicore CPUs will replace videocards is not what is happening.
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Unless, as Intel is predicting, real time ray tracing starts being used on 16-core+ CPUs ;)
 
as far as the whole R700 being a dual core gpu. My concern would be the drivers. I have my doubts as to whether ATI's driver department is competent enough to code for a dual core gpu.
 
kllrnohj said:
Unless, as Intel is predicting, real time ray tracing starts being used on 16-core+ CPUs ;)
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And lets hope that it can at least render Quake 1 (It took around 20+CPUs to do Q3 in real time ray tracing fairly recently :p). It takes a lot of power to render a static object, let alone complex moving ones with effects, physics, particles etc. blah blah blah :).
 
Miscommunication said:
And lets hope that it can at least render Quake 1 (It took around 20+CPUs to do Q3 in real time ray tracing fairly recently :p). It takes a lot of power to render a static object, let alone complex moving ones with effects, physics, particles etc. blah blah blah :).
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You mean you don't find Quake3 running at 256x256 and getting 17 fps acceptable on a quad-core? Jeez you're spoiled :p
 
Downhill? I think not. Rumor mill still says the new 8800GTS will be out next month, and they seem to be keeping quiet about whatever the "new" performance king will be.

ATI/AMD still do not have their product out yet and are more or less just blowing marketing smoke around to try to hurt Nvidia's flagging stock price. This won't really work long term either as earnings are on Nov 8th. So expect all the blah blah blah to quiet down from ATI after they realise they can't stop the juggernaut. (Yes, I obviously have a dog in the fight but I call it like I see it.)

As far as Intel goes, I'm interested in their raytracing ideas. The practical downside is that we won't actually HAVE 16 core CPUs for around 3 years yet. Octal core chips were pushed back to 2009. And in the raytracing article Intel said that the raytracing only became VIABLE at 16 cores, not superior. So even once they can do it, they estimated at least several MORE years before there are enough cores in a desktop to actually make this as good or better than existing GPUs. That's roughly 6+ years, not really a factor in technology terms. Who the hell knows what a dedicated GPU will be capable of in six years? Nvidia themselves may design a purpose built raytracing unit by then and leave Intel wondering what they are doing.

And remember the old addage: "Intel has failed at everything outside their core business of making CPUs". That doesn't bode well for them making a go of a graphics division.

In the near term, say one to three years, I would not be surprised to see ATI/AMD try to fully integrate mid-range graphics into a dekstop CPU core. I also would not be surprised to see a tech partnership where Intel licenses Nvidia tech to do the same thing. Given the VAST difference in resources and talent that both teams can bring to the table I would guess at an early media victory by ATI/AMD followed by a total domination from Intel/Nvidia.

That scenario is not one I'm really looking forward to, since it essentially turns PCs into a console.
 
Zorachus said:
The R600 was known before hand to be under performer, or not the 8800Ultra all geeks dreamed for. But the R700 has been speculated for a long long time already,, not nearly the same as R600 was. The R700 will be ground breaking you watch, I am betting the first real DualCore gpu, not just a GX2, but a real deal single card with 2 gpu's built in, they have AMD tech to combine with ATI technology

Where is nVidia anyways ?? They told all their business partners to expect a 1TF VideoCard by the end of the year, well where is that card ?? Wonder if the 9800GTX is not really the same speed jump as 2-8800GTX's everyone thinks it should be
Click to expand...

IMO, GPU will never be multicore processor. There's no reason to do so. GPU, unlike CPU, are massive parallel processor, if you have enough transistor to make dual core GPU with say 128 SMP, might as well make one GPU that has 256 SMP as it's obviously more effective that way.

AMD didn't acquire ATi to make multi core GPU, as multi core GPU itself doesn't make any sense. It's probably to incoperate GPU into CPU somewhere in the future, if technology is indeed evolving towards that direction. Otherwise, I don't see how AMD is gonna benefit from ATi.
 
they know each other better than anyone that is huge plus may be nvidia made better mobos before but now everything can change
 
First, what are you all smokin'? I mean I had some killer hash from tailand once.. no wait, that wasn't me. Ok well my buddy had some killer hash from Tailand once and he said the CPU's there suck man!

Seriously. Only judging by Intel’s position in all this it's obviously one of two things… they’ve worked very hard with a partnership with nVidia to aggressively drown out the newly solidified competition (AMD/ATi) and they then… plan to eat what’s left of the carcass (nVidia), OR Intel is merely utilizing all the recently funded military contributions and technologies to take over the world.

*dons tin foil hat*

Again, in all seriousness… the hands have been drawn, to each, a Tom’s Hardware poker face. Intel’s new chipsets clearly seem more appealing. And what’s worse? They have been king of the silicon hill for at least the past year. Is it mere coincidence that ATi/AMD have slacked while the prominent Intel and their soon-to-be rival Nvidia reign supreme?

Intel: Been here for a long time, well trusted, probably funded by the government. **classified**
AMD: We can make great stuff, but we need more funding.
Nvidia: Microsoft approves.
ATi: Was that my ass that just flew by?

Just imagine consistent 1000$ processors and video cards.

*takes up stock in tin foil*

*hoping Intel/Microsoft doesn't buy it all first*

XD
 
matrix563 said:
driver stability = ati < nvidia
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there, fixed that for you

Ati's crappy drivers are the one and only real reason i simply refuse to buy anything made by the red team. Last march i was like "you know what, the igp drivers on my laptop must be half a year old, i should update, get me some of that added performance ati always keeps adding", install, driver crash, reboot, driver crash etc... format drive, reinstall OS

and this was in windows, not Ati's famous crappy linux drivers either.

This is something i havent even come close to with an nvidia product, the ati driver just kept crashing every ~30 minutes, taking the whole system down. from what i found online this was a bug that was present in multiple driver releases too!


Nvidia isnt going anywhere, Ati couldnt write a decent driver if their lives depended on it, Intel takes >6 months to add vertex acceleration to its g965 drivers?

sure intel might know their hardware, but untill they launch and provide both good hardware and a killer driver, nvidia has nothing to worry about
 
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