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I had intended to do this last week. I dont think its too late to write now even though the outlook of things change from day to day.
Check this piece out. Intel Panics and Announces Merom by Charlie Demerjian published by TheInquirer.net 05/06/2005.
I clearly remember reading this article last year. Last week, I accidentally stumbled on it again after doing a search with keywords Merom $ to check up on Merom pricing information.
Nearly a year ago, Charlie laid out a fairly accurate schedule and set of expectations for Merom. In hindsight, this article seems prophetic. Is that so? Can Charlie really predict the future?
One thing that really struck me most was this line in Charlies article.
To me, one of these surprises seems to be the progression from B1 to C1 Presler stepping. Apparently, the power reduction from B1 to C1 was made possible by a reduction in leakage as leakage is what really affects maximum power consumption. So, it would seem Charlie (1) can see the future, (2) has some great sources, (3) moonlights as a horoscope writer, as this type says all sorts of things that can mean just about anything. Im leaning on (2) and (3). More importantly, Charlie makes his claims based off Intels claims.
So, taking the article in its entirety, one sees Intel has not only met its goals, but also exceeded its expectations regarding (A) schedule and (B) performance. See below:
(A)
(B)
Indeed, Intels has executed the Core Microarchitecture brilliantly. One can say almost flawlessly. Is this really a surprise?
It is true that Intel needs to be held to higher accountability than most other semiconductor firms and the same goes with AMD. Intel is the largest semiconductor firm in the known universe. AMD competes directly with its processor division and has been kicking it around like a hardened piece of turd. Ok, maybe a ball makes more sense.
Anyway, the way we hold both companies accountable is we dont make excuses when they fail to perform. We reserve judgement for when deadlines come and go, products perform or underperform, or prices and availability meet or fail to meet demand. For all intents, its fairly idiotic to claim that Conroe is vaporware. Vaporware in software terms is stuff thats supposed to be ready, sold, and yet, nowhere to be found. Same thing with hardware. One understands when this term is applied to certain ATI products in the recent past. So, a fitting situation would be sometime in August or September(actually October because that would be Q4), in the unlikely event Intel doesnt move Conroes release date forward, that the processor is supposed to be available, yet nowhere to be found, not even in Dell systems. Or. Same case with AMD and AM2 processors in July or August, except with non-Dell oems. Then, we would be calling Conroe or AM2 vaporware. But, then AM2 is supposed to be released late Q2 or H1 isnt it? Not Q3 or H2.
So, it should be no surprise that Intel has come through with Conroe and should be no surprise if Conroe starts shipping some time in July, August, or September. Based on the recent announcement at XS, I dont think were going to be disappointed.
Its great that Intel has come through with the Core Microarchitecture. If it was just performance, I dont think it would be a bigger deal than X2 vs PD. But, one thing missed by Charlies article is the value factor. Conroe pricing is a pleasant surprise. Its easy to rationalize. Conroe is a single die, smaller than Presler which is MCM. Cheaper to make, with less steps from printing to packaging. No wonder!
Regardless or who holds the current performance leader, neither has much lead in value, excepting maybe the PD805. Still, it doesnt matter who is in the lead. If Intel were three steps ahead of AMD in performance and value and they were to present info on something with yet better performance and value, why would we not care to discuss it?
The two paths some arguments I have seen taking, I dont care about Conroe because AMD is the best and I dont believe Intel because I dont believe Intel is bunk. Why should Intel be held to some anti-Intel fanb0i standard. Is that their target market? Some people dont seem to understand this.
One of the more mentally-challenged responses is "why is Intel doing this...showing off and all" duh! Remember Charlie's article:
Plan A works! Plan B is when Intel has no working silicon and talks its head off about it's great microarchitecture or worse yet, keep it all secret and keep us in the dark as to how good it is and how much it will cost!
Ok, so we look at how there are great developments on the Intel front. How about AMD?
Lets look at that Charlie article again. AMD knew as well if not better than Charlie Demerjian what Intel was going to do. 12 months of advance notice and this is what they come up with: K8L sometime next year. One can see why this is a flawed strategy. First, K8L is quad core which makes it a non-mainstream product. Unless, AMD can somehow magically reduce their production costs these chips are not going to be for the average guy like me and probably you, for quite some time, unless you are into ExtremE or Flipping Xtreme pricing. I can see why AMD went with this plan in the first place. From the projections for 65nm this time last year, we would have expected 65nm AM2 by now. If they had executed that plan well, AMD would be ahead of Conroe, throwing down the quad-core card before Intel even gets a chance to gain back market share, and recouping shares back when their(AMD) 65nm process matures. Better performing, justifiably more expensive(sarcasm) because it would be more expensive to make. As a result, AMD moves the price curve for the market upwards, a true market-mover and pretty much what theyve been doing lately.
As it turns out, AMD got greedy and seems to have been spitting in the wind.
In Digitimes recent first interview with Henri Richards, he says that AMD is following an evolutionary and not revolutionary approach in 2007. Too, bad this just means K8L is alive and K10 is dead. When you play the multicore escalation game, how do you find time and resources to develop a new core to base your later multicores on?
Oh well! AMD is playing with the big boys now. Let it be held accountable in the big boys game. This is not the little ATI/Nvidia boys game. In that game, they're just learning to play like the big boys. Admittedly, the little boys seem to be growing up, too.
As exciting as Conroe news is, theres no need to warrant that this will benefit the consumer because it will spur AMD to compete. Thats patented nonsense. It benefits the consumer because its a great leap ahead in performance and pricing and thats all there is to it.
So, there you have it. Just trying to bring a perspective on this issue. Thoughts?
Check this piece out. Intel Panics and Announces Merom by Charlie Demerjian published by TheInquirer.net 05/06/2005.
I clearly remember reading this article last year. Last week, I accidentally stumbled on it again after doing a search with keywords Merom $ to check up on Merom pricing information.
Nearly a year ago, Charlie laid out a fairly accurate schedule and set of expectations for Merom. In hindsight, this article seems prophetic. Is that so? Can Charlie really predict the future?
One thing that really struck me most was this line in Charlies article.
To me, one of these surprises seems to be the progression from B1 to C1 Presler stepping. Apparently, the power reduction from B1 to C1 was made possible by a reduction in leakage as leakage is what really affects maximum power consumption. So, it would seem Charlie (1) can see the future, (2) has some great sources, (3) moonlights as a horoscope writer, as this type says all sorts of things that can mean just about anything. Im leaning on (2) and (3). More importantly, Charlie makes his claims based off Intels claims.
So, taking the article in its entirety, one sees Intel has not only met its goals, but also exceeded its expectations regarding (A) schedule and (B) performance. See below:
(A)
(B)
Indeed, Intels has executed the Core Microarchitecture brilliantly. One can say almost flawlessly. Is this really a surprise?
It is true that Intel needs to be held to higher accountability than most other semiconductor firms and the same goes with AMD. Intel is the largest semiconductor firm in the known universe. AMD competes directly with its processor division and has been kicking it around like a hardened piece of turd. Ok, maybe a ball makes more sense.
Anyway, the way we hold both companies accountable is we dont make excuses when they fail to perform. We reserve judgement for when deadlines come and go, products perform or underperform, or prices and availability meet or fail to meet demand. For all intents, its fairly idiotic to claim that Conroe is vaporware. Vaporware in software terms is stuff thats supposed to be ready, sold, and yet, nowhere to be found. Same thing with hardware. One understands when this term is applied to certain ATI products in the recent past. So, a fitting situation would be sometime in August or September(actually October because that would be Q4), in the unlikely event Intel doesnt move Conroes release date forward, that the processor is supposed to be available, yet nowhere to be found, not even in Dell systems. Or. Same case with AMD and AM2 processors in July or August, except with non-Dell oems. Then, we would be calling Conroe or AM2 vaporware. But, then AM2 is supposed to be released late Q2 or H1 isnt it? Not Q3 or H2.
So, it should be no surprise that Intel has come through with Conroe and should be no surprise if Conroe starts shipping some time in July, August, or September. Based on the recent announcement at XS, I dont think were going to be disappointed.
Its great that Intel has come through with the Core Microarchitecture. If it was just performance, I dont think it would be a bigger deal than X2 vs PD. But, one thing missed by Charlies article is the value factor. Conroe pricing is a pleasant surprise. Its easy to rationalize. Conroe is a single die, smaller than Presler which is MCM. Cheaper to make, with less steps from printing to packaging. No wonder!
Regardless or who holds the current performance leader, neither has much lead in value, excepting maybe the PD805. Still, it doesnt matter who is in the lead. If Intel were three steps ahead of AMD in performance and value and they were to present info on something with yet better performance and value, why would we not care to discuss it?
The two paths some arguments I have seen taking, I dont care about Conroe because AMD is the best and I dont believe Intel because I dont believe Intel is bunk. Why should Intel be held to some anti-Intel fanb0i standard. Is that their target market? Some people dont seem to understand this.
One of the more mentally-challenged responses is "why is Intel doing this...showing off and all" duh! Remember Charlie's article:
Plan A works! Plan B is when Intel has no working silicon and talks its head off about it's great microarchitecture or worse yet, keep it all secret and keep us in the dark as to how good it is and how much it will cost!
Ok, so we look at how there are great developments on the Intel front. How about AMD?
Lets look at that Charlie article again. AMD knew as well if not better than Charlie Demerjian what Intel was going to do. 12 months of advance notice and this is what they come up with: K8L sometime next year. One can see why this is a flawed strategy. First, K8L is quad core which makes it a non-mainstream product. Unless, AMD can somehow magically reduce their production costs these chips are not going to be for the average guy like me and probably you, for quite some time, unless you are into ExtremE or Flipping Xtreme pricing. I can see why AMD went with this plan in the first place. From the projections for 65nm this time last year, we would have expected 65nm AM2 by now. If they had executed that plan well, AMD would be ahead of Conroe, throwing down the quad-core card before Intel even gets a chance to gain back market share, and recouping shares back when their(AMD) 65nm process matures. Better performing, justifiably more expensive(sarcasm) because it would be more expensive to make. As a result, AMD moves the price curve for the market upwards, a true market-mover and pretty much what theyve been doing lately.
As it turns out, AMD got greedy and seems to have been spitting in the wind.
In Digitimes recent first interview with Henri Richards, he says that AMD is following an evolutionary and not revolutionary approach in 2007. Too, bad this just means K8L is alive and K10 is dead. When you play the multicore escalation game, how do you find time and resources to develop a new core to base your later multicores on?
Oh well! AMD is playing with the big boys now. Let it be held accountable in the big boys game. This is not the little ATI/Nvidia boys game. In that game, they're just learning to play like the big boys. Admittedly, the little boys seem to be growing up, too.
As exciting as Conroe news is, theres no need to warrant that this will benefit the consumer because it will spur AMD to compete. Thats patented nonsense. It benefits the consumer because its a great leap ahead in performance and pricing and thats all there is to it.
So, there you have it. Just trying to bring a perspective on this issue. Thoughts?
They were almost laughed off the Web. Then in Tom's fashion, they over did it to try and make up for the gaff!