Chip Industry to Recover By 2012

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Chairman Morris Chang said in a recent interview that he believes the chip industry will recover by 2012. Is his prediction on the money or is he off his rocker?

"I think it will be 2012 before the total revenue of the semiconductor industry gets back to the '08 level," said Chang, who has worked in the industry for more than 50 years. He founded TSMC, the world's largest contract chip manufacturer, in 1987.
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This is an economic downturn just like the ones in the early 00's and the late 80's. Everything will recover in a year or two. There's way too much doomsaying in the media.
 
im in the semiconductor industry, and 2008 was not a good year. The first ~several months were great however
 
djBon2112 said:
This is an economic downturn just like the ones in the early 00's and the late 80's. Everything will recover in a year or two. There's way too much doomsaying in the media.
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It's going to go further than that... a year or two? hah.. we're still talking about spending a few trillion more over the next 4 years, coupled with skyrocketing the income tax and corporate tax. Businesses won't stand a chance.
 
The difference this time round is that major economies are trying to buy their way out of this recession.
Who knows which way costs more in the end, but this is to try and stave off complete monetary collapse.
It can still happen and countries can go bankrupt if it gets worse!

Its a bit early to predict anything yet, especially as its not known how bad things are going to get.
Therefore, timescale predictions dont mean a lot.
 
The great American dream is so messed up today:

People spend more than they make. (until this recent economic crisis)
The government spends more than it makes. (bailout #2 here we come)
It's no surprise that businesses are also spending more than they are making.

I guess it's not just America, but the world. Everybody wants more than they can afford. Heck, I do, too. How did we let things go this far?
 
SirKronan said:
The great American dream is so messed up today:

People spend more than they make. (until this recent economic crisis)
The government spends more than it makes. (bailout #2 here we come)
It's no surprise that businesses are also spending more than they are making.

I guess it's not just America, but the world. Everybody wants more than they can afford. Heck, I do, too. How did we let things go this far?
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Its Called Credit. Plus abuse.
 
Imo this is a structural downturn not a cyclical one... but those kinds of opinions should be soapboxed.
 
trudude said:
When I first saw this posted I was gonna post "in before the 2012 people"...but I didn't.

:D
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Dec 21 2012 is when zombies will roam the world.

If zombie movies have taught us something it's that they're all susceptible to the head shot... and melee (L4D).
 
So many companies declaring a return to profitibility sometime in 2012. Gets one thinking they're all just trying to postpone a global economic meltdown until the end of the days lol
 
w1retap said:
We're not even to the Carter stage of a recession yet.
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Agreed.
The results of the current companies collapsing hasnt been realised yet, let alone those that are yet to collapse without a bailout.
Theres a fair way to go yet.
We are not in the recession that is coming and this isnt scare mongering.
Its better to be realistic.
 
w1retap said:
We're not even to the Carter stage of a recession yet.
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QFT. Let's hope there is no "yet" moment.

The big difference this time around is that bills are coming due for a lot of very stupid finance sector shenanigans of the last twenty years or so. There were safeguards removed in the 90s and we're seeing the effect now. In the sub prime market we saw lenders give money to people who would normally not qualify and did so because they felt safe doing it. Why? The magic of the credit default swap, a poorly understood and opaque financial voodoo construct that's gonna be felt for a long time. Anyway, my point is this time around it's a bit more complicated than many would like to believe. The press is blowing things out of proportion, but there are also those who are being a bit too glib with trivializing the impact this time around.

Of course none of this matters if you just lost your job. It sucks and is real and immediate for those people.

Finally, folks who point blame to one party or the other are fools. It was a team effort, regulation-wise. Partisan blow-hards do not add meaningfully to the discussion.
 
ianken said:
QFT. Let's hope there is no "yet" moment.

The big difference this time around is that bills are coming due for a lot of very stupid finance sector shenanigans of the last twenty years or so. There were safeguards removed in the 90s and we're seeing the effect now. In the sub prime market we saw lenders give money to people who would normally not qualify and did so because they felt safe doing it. Why? The magic of the credit default swap, a poorly understood and opaque financial voodoo construct that's gonna be felt for a long time. Anyway, my point is this time around it's a bit more complicated than many would like to believe. The press is blowing things out of proportion, but there are also those who are being a bit too glib with trivializing the impact this time around.

Of course none of this matters if you just lost your job. It sucks and is real and immediate for those people.

Finally, folks who point blame to one party or the other are fools. It was a team effort, regulation-wise. Partisan blow-hards do not add meaningfully to the discussion.
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Well said.

I am hoping for the best, but at the same time preparing. My resume is polished and ready to go, and I graduate with a degree in psychology this coming July.

No matter how bad the economy gets, there's usually need for counseling. Perhaps there will even be more need if this downturn continues and depression grows more common and more severe.
 
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