Citi, Oxford: 80% of Retail Jobs at Risk from Automation

Megalith

Megalith

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Analysts from Citi bank and academics from Oxford predict that 80% of retail jobs will “vanish” due to technology. While automation can lead to new types of jobs being created, its effects on retail are being compared to agriculture, mining, and manufacturing, where jobs have simply disappeared. Any new positions would involve a higher skillset and a degree requirement, which means low-skilled workers will be the hardest hit.

"The demand for low-skilled workers performing routine tasks has experienced a secular decline," Benedikt Frey says. More than 55,000 retail jobs have been axed in the US in 2017 alone and the British Retail Consortium warned earlier this year of a decline in the number of retail jobs in the UK as shopping moves online. The disappearance of factory jobs has led to the devastation of many communities in areas like the so-called "rust belt" of the US but Benedikt Frey says the decline of retail jobs is likely to felt much more widely.
 
which means low-skilled works will be the hardest hit.
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I am shocked and appalled.

Quick guys, we really need to bring in some more low-skilled immigrant workers because we need to help them! They are just poor people that are starving and want to work hard, so that when they get here they can work for minimum wage busing tables that will one day be automated so that they shortly after become homeless because fee fees

Instead of...you know... working improve the conditions of where they are currently living to grow their society as a whole. No no no, screw that, let's help individuals, not groups of individuals.

This is what I love about capitalism, it doesn't care about you. It doesn't care about me. It grows based on the actions of its people, and people don't want low-skilled jobs such as taking our orders wrong at restaurants, salesmen that try to twist our arms into buying useless shit, etc.. etc..
 
So you basically have the following outcomes:

1.) Further deterioration into poverty, homelessness, and increase in slums for the poor (likely).
2.) Guaranteed basic income (unlikely).
3.) Automation of some skilled jobs too.
4.) Increase in competition for skilled jobs leading to further stagnation in wage / salary growth for what remains of the middle class.
5.) Less jobs for working teens, and working retired folks. The kids will stay longer at the parents house, the retirees will live with their kids.
6.) The rich will get richer (always have).
 
This is inevitable. We've been moving in this direction for over 100 years now. I'm encouraging my children to enter the trades. People who went to trades schools and were considered incapable of anything else are now laughing all the way to the bank with astounding job security and making $100 an hour as a plumber or the like. I myself work in the trades (even though I have college level education) and I have so much work on my plate I barely know what to do about it.
 
S-F said:
This is inevitable. We've been moving in this direction for over 100 years now. I'm encouraging my children to enter the trades. People who went to trades schools and were considered incapable of anything else are now laughing all the way to the bank with astounding job security and making $100 an hour as a plumber or the like. I myself work in the trades (even though I have college level education) and I have so much work on my plate I barely know what to do about it.
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Yea, I agree. Trades are still low paying but pretty soon, those types for hire are going to get big again.

Especially electricians.
 
This is the reason socialism will win out, sadly. Without jobs being available there will be no other option other than extreme civil unrest. Even with socialism, wtf are people going to do ? Just watch Idiocracy to find out lol..
 
jnmunsey said:
This is the reason socialism will win out, sadly. Without jobs being available there will be no other option other than extreme civil unrest. Even with socialism, wtf are people going to do ? Just watch Idiocracy to find out lol..
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Under socialism the surplus propulation will become soylent green and be a benefit to the greater good.
 
Only people with unskilled jobs need to worry. There will always be work for skilled professionals.

I constantly read about shortages of plumbers, electricians, engineers, nurses, doctors, etc. I don't read about shortages of fry cooks, cab drivers or pool cleaners.

If you are smart enough, go to college and get a degree in engineering, computer science, accounting, etc.

If you are more hands on, pick a trade like plumbing, AC, electrical, automotive repair or general contracting and work you way up to a good position.
 
nutzo said:
Only people with unskilled jobs need to worry. There will always be work for skilled professionals.

I constantly read about shortages of plumbers, electricians, engineers, nurses, doctors, etc. I don't read about shortages of fry cooks, cab drivers or pool cleaners.

If you are smart enough, go to college and get a degree in engineering, computer science, accounting, etc.

If you are more hands on, pick a trade like plumbing, AC, electrical, automotive repair or general contracting and work you way up to a good position.
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Everyone needs to worry. Where do you think all of the people who needed these unskilled jobs will go? Disappear? Welfare (which will require higher taxes on the rest)? Many will get educated.

Here's a flip side argument. As these unskilled beginner jobs disappear, more people will turn to the skilled jobs. Education costs will rise (more demand, less supply), thus people will get more in debt before actually working. The increased supply of "skilled labor" will drive wages down as those jobs become competitive. The middle class will continue to shrink. We've already seen that in some skilled labor jobs (Doctor's now enter the workforce with 6 figures+ in school debt).

Anyone saying "good, we don't need unskilled labor" is not looking at the larger economic picture. There simply won't be enough jobs for everyone. If the supply of labor is high, wages will be low.
 
nutzo said:
Only people with unskilled jobs need to worry. There will always be work for skilled professionals.
I constantly read about shortages of plumbers, electricians, engineers, nurses, doctors, etc. I don't read about shortages of fry cooks, cab drivers or pool cleaners.
If you are smart enough, go to college and get a degree in engineering, computer science, accounting, etc.
If you are more hands on, pick a trade like plumbing, AC, electrical, automotive repair or general contracting and work you way up to a good position.
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Skilled jobs will go too. Those won't go first, obviously, but eventually they will go. There will probably be programming jobs for s/w that replaces other jobs (including some programming jobs), but jobs will go. There's already s/w for doing legal work (I'll let an attorney explain what it does and if it replaces workers). I'm sure that all that tax software has replaced tax preparers and probably some accountants.

Most trucking jobs will likely disappear in the next 10 or 20 years (3.5 million jobs gone <poof>). I can imagine a day when cards are repaired by robots. Maybe there will still be jobs picking Watermelons. Apparently have proven too hard to do by machine...alas people in the USA don't like picking them (I think they've tried doing that in Alabama and had problems getting US workers to take the job and stay).
 
Folks at the top tend to forget that its the people in the lower paid unskilled jobs that actually fund a massive part of the economy.

They are the ones that buy the Big macs, the taco Bells, the Twinkies, the lower end cars that are made in the USA, shop at Walmart etc. etc.They also pay for those skilled plumbers and builders if they can. Use the Jiffy Lube and the local car mechanic. If they have no money...

Oh yeah..and they buy a lot of guns. Imagine several million well armed, really pissed off, poor, oppressed and hungry people. What are they going to do eventually? Won't end well.

The rich hide their money, the poor spend it. You take away the money from the poor and your corporation is in big trouble.

As a rogue billionaire corporation owner said "Don't give me, a billionaire, more tax cuts as I have all I need already. But you give tax cuts to poor people and they will have more money to spend and that means I can create more jobs and make more money. Makes both sides happy!"

And yeah skilled white collar jobs will go too. And how long do you reckon till all that computer hardware is filled with black epoxy or can only be setup and serviced by approved licensed engineers?

It's coming if you all think this is perfectly acceptable. Get saving up for poverty!
 
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Large parts of unskilled labour is just a sign of a failed educational system.

People will work less in the future and people will have more wealth. If someone is falling through the system then reforms are needed in that country.
 
Shintai said:
Large parts of unskilled labour is just a sign of a failed educational system.

People will work less in the future and people will have more wealth. If someone is falling through the system then reforms are needed in that country.
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The problem is that even if everyone has an exemplary college degree there will still be a top quartile and a bottom quartile of earners. Someone will still have to do those bottom quartile jobs too. If somehow you get rid of those lower quartile jobs then you'll still have a load of educated people in poverty. You have to get the balance right. Not everyone can be a CEO.

Economies are like nature, you fuck with it too much and it will all go out of control very quickly.
 
daglesj said:
The problem is that even if everyone has an exemplary college degree there will still be a top quartile and a bottom quartile of earners. Someone will still have to do those bottom quartile jobs too. If somehow you get rid of those lower quartile jobs then you'll still have a load of educated people in poverty. You have to get the balance right. Not everyone can be a CEO.

Economies are like nature, you fuck with it too much and it will all go out of control very quickly.
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And 200 years ago 95% of the population was farmers, today its sub 1%. Not to mention people worked 12-16 hours a day 6 days a week instead of 6-8 hours a day, 5 days a week plus 6 weeks of vacation and paid maternity leave etc. Unskilled labour is simply a dead dino.
 
Shintai said:
And 200 years ago 95% of the population was farmers, today its sub 1%. Not to mention people worked 12-16 hours a day 6 days a week instead of 6-8 hours a day, 5 days a week plus 6 weeks of vacation and paid maternity leave etc. Unskilled labour is simply a dead dino.
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There will always be a lower quartile of jobs and income, it's how it works. Doesn't matter what the jobs are. There is always a pecking order unless you are pushing for hard line communism (which also doesn't work). Plus do most folks in the US only work 6-8 hours and take 4 weeks vacation etc. ? They may do in the rest of the civilised world but not in the US.

Well once the unskilled is taken away then Wall Street and the 1% will push for getting rid of more skilled and white collar jobs. AI will replace a lot of the white collar jobs with its decision making algorithms and do it a lot lot faster. All those banking and insurance jobs, clerical wont be needed to support them. Then its a push to get rid of the doctors and surgeons...maybe even lawyers if they can do it quicker and cheaper.

So many will be poor they wont be able to afford the plumbers, electricians and builders...

All to do it quicker and cheaper to make Wall Street happy.
 
daglesj said:
There will always be a lower quartile of jobs and income, it's how it works. Doesn't matter what the jobs are. There is always a pecking order unless you are pushing for hard line communism (which also doesn't work). Plus do most folks in the US only work 6-8 hours and take 4 weeks vacation etc. ? They may do in the rest of the civilised world but not in the US.

Well once the unskilled is taken away then Wall Street and the 1% will push for getting rid of more skilled and white collar jobs. AI will replace a lot of the white collar jobs with its decision making algorithms and do it a lot lot faster. All those banking and insurance jobs, clerical wont be needed to support them. Then its a push to get rid of the doctors and surgeons...maybe even lawyers if they can do it quicker and cheaper.

So many will be poor they wont be able to afford the plumbers, electricians and builders...

All to do it quicker and cheaper to make Wall Street happy.
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You just defined the problem to be local. Not an issue with automation and AI. ;)
 
Shintai said:
You just defined the problem to be local. Not an issue with automation and AI. ;)
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It will happen all over. I'm from the UK where we get 6 weeks holiday and all the trimmings but the blue and white collar jobs will dry up massively over the next 15 years+. The politicians only have a plan till their next election.

Meanwhile the 1% on their inherited wealth will applaud.
 
Low skilled jobs are probably the most reliable jobs right now. Remember companies replace workers to gain bigger profits, and who better to replace than skilled lobar? It's also easier to replace skilled labor as they generally don't have to move around. Physical robots cost a lot more than something that sits in a computer. To give you an idea in America there's already some talk about brining in vending machines that dispenses medication based on your prescription. Something that's been in the UK for nearly 7 years now. And pharmacists aren't low paid low skilled workers either.

If you think automation is going to look like this, then you need to rethink what jobs are more easily automated. Even programming can be automated.

 
It's not so much about being smart enough to get a degree as opposed to trades work. I myself have college "training" for a certain field but work in a trade and make a lot more money and have a lot more work. Some fields are going to take a lot longer to be automated. They are the fields that need creativity. Writing good code, figuring out how to plumb a 130 year old house, build an addition, create the latest gizmo, etc. Surely automation will at some point make these jobs redundant but it's going to take a while compared to running a cash register, which is already becoming obsolete. The writing is on the wall. Our current social architecture for subsistence is going to Hell.

Humans Need Not Apply:

 
tetris42 said:
With that understanding of it, I can see why so many are against it.
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Socialism is about turning businesses from the private sector to the public sector. Also giving every worker equal ownership and therefore wealth from the company. Venezuela for example only had 30% of the businesses in the public sector, while 70% was private. There are countries with more people working in the public sector than Venezuela, which makes you understand how socialist Venezuela really wasn't.

For example USPS is a public sector business, while UPS and Fedex are in the private sector. Socialism believes more businesses should operate like USPS.
 
Cyraxx said:
I am shocked and appalled.

Quick guys, we really need to bring in some more low-skilled immigrant workers because we need to help them! They are just poor people that are starving and want to work hard, so that when they get here they can work for minimum wage busing tables that will one day be automated so that they shortly after become homeless because fee fees

Instead of...you know... working improve the conditions of where they are currently living to grow their society as a whole. No no no, screw that, let's help individuals, not groups of individuals.

This is what I love about capitalism, it doesn't care about you. It doesn't care about me. It grows based on the actions of its people, and people don't want low-skilled jobs such as taking our orders wrong at restaurants, salesmen that try to twist our arms into buying useless shit, etc.. etc..
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Forget the rust belt and large swaths of the south. Nope no low skill workers there at all. Just Schrodinger's immigrant, you know the one that simultaneously sucks up all the social programs because they don't work with no skills all while managing to take all the jobs from hard working Americans.
 
100% of analysts jobs at risk of automation... As computers and algorithms would be better at it most of the time. Oh they'll have a guy to push print i guess.
 
DukenukemX said:
Socialism is about turning businesses from the private sector to the public sector. Also giving every worker equal ownership and therefore wealth from the company. Venezuela for example only had 30% of the businesses in the public sector, while 70% was private. There are countries with more people working in the public sector than Venezuela, which makes you understand how socialist Venezuela really wasn't.

For example USPS is a public sector business, while UPS and Fedex are in the private sector. Socialism believes more businesses should operate like USPS.
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Scandinavia is very socialist and very successful. Specially americans seems to have a very black and white view of it after the red scare program that even alienated Einstein.

But this is also why we in Scandinavia and in Europe embrace automation and AI. Its a benefit to us all. Not something we have to fear due to lack of social nets and barriers for education and other opportunities.

A worker here is under education throughout the entire life.
 
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Uvaman2 said:
100% of analysts jobs at risk of automation... As computers and algorithms would be better at it most of the time. Oh they'll have a guy to push print i guess.
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The 4th revolution will really hit a lot of jobs that have a service fee higher than what average people can really pay without it being a big burden. 95%+ of all lawyers for example will be jobless. Or those that is essentially just mindless jobs.

But hello 4 hour work days and maybe 3-4 work days a week. :)
 
Shintai said:
But hello 4 hour work days and maybe 3-4 work days a week. :)
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Oh, sure.

anna-coote-new-economics-foundation-20-728.jpg


That was 87 years ago. Still waiting on that less-than-40-hour workweek.
 
tetris42 said:
Still waiting on that less-than-40-hour workweek.
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Way ahead of you, 30-32 hour is common here. 36-37.5 hour the norm. And it all includes lots of paid vacation time as well. Most companies see production increase by going 30 hours over 37.5 hours for example.
 
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Shintai said:
Way ahead of you, 30-32 hour is common here. 36-37.5 hour the norm. And it all includes lots of paid vacation time as well. Most companies see production increase by going 30 hours over 37.5 hours for example.
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Yes! The ideal work week is really 6x5 days, no lunch. By the time you hit hour six you are still ok, and maybe a bit hungry.. with 8 hours with lunch you eat and then drag a dread the last 2 hours.
 
Uvaman2 said:
Yes! The ideal work week is really 6x5 days, no lunch. By the time you hit hour six you are still ok, and maybe a bit hungry.. with 8 hours with lunch you eat and then drag a dread the last 2 hours.
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We have paid lunch.

A Norwegian or Danish person work around 1400 hours a year.
 
Honestly for me, the ideal work week is 12 on 12 off. That is only 60 hours and still get the weekend off. 60 is the new 40 in most places.
 
With automation and AI there will also be a money movement more inside the system from so called cold to warm hands. Money will be moved by taxes or similar in a bigger way from office, manufactoring etc jobs to daycare, eldercare, teachers and so on. Since the cost on warm hands will rise due to less hours worked, but the cold hands jobs giving massive wealth boosts on the other hand.
 
All the new economics is deflationary. Automation/efficiency engineers the cost out of both supply chain and production. Then competition at lower cost drives down price.

Factory owners take a cut from price, but price is shrinking. Probably the only thing holding back faster adoption of automation is lengthening ROI due to price deflation. Sometimes that sentiment is expressed as "let's wait for more R&D to make this automation both more effective and less expensive".

All the current capitalist economic theory requires inflation. You see Japan and to some extent other places actively fighting deflation with policy, but that's like trying to hold back the tide.

Economic theory which embraces deflation? Patches welcome.
 
Shintai said:
Way ahead of you, 30-32 hour is common here. 36-37.5 hour the norm. And it all includes lots of paid vacation time as well. Most companies see production increase by going 30 hours over 37.5 hours for example.
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But you kill people and then feed them to others in order to make Soylent Green.
 
Trimlock said:
Yea, I agree. Trades are still low paying but pretty soon, those types for hire are going to get big again.

Especially electricians.
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I wouldn't say low pay, im a 4th year electrician with some on the job training in plc programming and I bring in 6 figures with all the nice company perks (phone, gaming laptop truck ect). Maybe its different in the US but in canada if your making less than $40/hour your either a residential electrician or shitty at your job and do the same things an apprentice should be doing anyways.

My mom actually gets very mad about it, she went to university for years to get a teaching degree then social program degrees and snagged a veyr nice goverment job and still make alot less than her trade worker son lol.
 
Remember an Immigrant NEVER took any anyone's job. They were GIVEN that job by someone wealthy, so they could cut costs and get even wealthier. Immigrants are not the problem.
 
daglesj said:
Remember an Immigrant NEVER took any anyone's job. They were GIVEN that job by someone wealthy, so they could cut costs and get even wealthier. Immigrants are not the problem.
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And they often never took any job a local wanted or was able to do.
 
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