Dissappointing Year So Far for AMD

[duby229]

Very little money is made by Intel or AMD at the bottom of the range, and this is where AMD is at.

Wow... I cant even begin to tell you how many times I've heard this, and how wrong it is. The fact is that the vast majority of the money these companies make is at the low end. As a matter of fact entry level.

Lets consider that cost per die is somewhere around $31 give or take $5 then consider volume and make the appropriate calculations... You'll see that the low end makes a lot more money then the high end. The high end is just for bragging rights.

 

[Atech]

Wow... I cant even begin to tell you how many times I've heard this, and how wrong it is. The fact is that the vast majority of the money these companies make is at the low end. As a matter of fact entry level.

Lets consider that cost per die is somewhere around $31 give or take $5 then consider volume and make the appropriate calculations... You'll see that the low end makes a lot more money then the high end. The high end is just for bragging rights.

I'd rather not take advice from you, thanks:
http://www.hardforum.com/showpost.php?p=1031421979&postcount=75

 

[RangerSVT]

I'd rather not take advice from you, thanks:
http://www.hardforum.com/showpost.php?p=1031421979&postcount=75

OWNED!!!!!!!!!

 

[cerebrex]

I'd rather not take advice from you, thanks:
http://www.hardforum.com/showpost.php?p=1031421979&postcount=75

Nothing like your own history to bite you in the ass.

 

[duby229]

So tell me what was wrong with that post. Everything in it is still equally true now as it was then.... Go ahead, I dare ya.... This Phenom launch is a spitting image of the Barcelona launch, and the K7 launce before it, and K6 launce before that and K5 launch before that, and the 486 launch before that, and the 386 launch before that. I cant think of a single launch where AMD took the lead right away. It has never happened in the history of the company. Ever.

Besides the low end is where the money is at, just as it always has been. If you thnk differently then prove it.

 

[duby229]

One thing I am wondering about though...what happened to all the "native" quadcore crap?

Umm it's cheaper.... DUH....

 

[duby229]

Nothing like your own history to bite you in the ass.

I wouldnt call it biting ass as it is still entirely true now. Justa as it has been entirely true going all the way back to the 386 days. Besides that thread has no place in this topic, and the guy who posted it was just trolling anyway.

 

[pxc]

The river denial flows through this thread.

 

[Atech]

So tell me what was wrong with that post.

Your conclusion:
"Instead of declaring "victory" Hold on to your panties. Dont slip them off just yet. You dont want to get caught with "Intel Inside" just yet."

No cherrytalk is going to alter that...or your "love" for AMD

 

[Atech]

Umm it's slower.... DUH....

Fixed...

 

[duby229]

Your conclusion:
"Instead of declaring "victory" Hold on to your panties. Dont slip them off just yet. You dont want to get caught with "Intel Inside" just yet."

No cherrytalk is going to alter that...or your "love" for AMD

If you want Intel to rape you then please feel free to let them shove it in.... I on the other hand prefer to have an alternative to keep the market competitive.

So in your case I guess "Dont keep your panties on" Everybody else please do.

 

[duby229]

Fixed...

Go troll somewhere else. This is the AMD forum, your clearly a fanboy, and you should just o over to the side you belong on, becouse it isnt here.

 

[RangerSVT]

Go troll somewhere else. This is the AMD forum, your clearly a fanboy, and you should just o over to the side you belong on, becouse it isnt here.

Do you know the definition of the world troll and how to use it to attack another member?

 

[duby229]

Do you know the definition of the world troll and how to use it to attack another member?

Are you kidding me? Your serious?

 

[fluxion]

duby basically said "wait and see".

nothing wrong with that.

now let's all hold hands

 

[jarthel]

it seems to me that duby's replies has the word fanboy all over it

I suppose all the benchmarks are just plain wrong!

45nm won't make cheaper chips for intel and less in quantity. let us forget the overclock possibility as well.

 

[tvdang7]

Did we read the same reviews?
Check the review right here on [H]ardOCP, it includes a 6400+.
In most applications/games it performs closely to the 9600, at a much lower price.
Heck, in some it even outperforms the 9600 and 9700 by a margin, eg Lame.
Video-encoding and certain multithreaded games (but not all, eg Crysis) favour Phenom, but still the 6400+ is so much cheaper that it's just better bang for the buck.

well the 6400+ is a very fast cpu theres a lot of mhz difference the 2. so the architecture aint too bad.

 

[duby229]

it seems to me that duby's replies has the word fanboy all over it

I suppose all the benchmarks are just plain wrong!

45nm won't make cheaper chips for intel and less in quantity. let us forget the overclock possibility as well.

Where did I ever say --anything-- about Intel? This is the AMD forum... If you want to talk about Intel, go to that forum.

In the mean time this is the AMD forum, so lets keep things on topic please.

 

[Manny Calavera]

And they managed to take along a quality GPU company in their downwards spiral...

I'm sure ATI would have been able to release it's new cards sooner were it not for the merger.

I've yet to see any benefits from ATI/AMD synergies in terms of real "results". Lots of talk, and pretty marketing slides, but no "results".

All I see are second rate GPU's and second rate cheap processors. Over one "year" later and the 8800GTX still beats AMD latest products. And it's been about a year since the Q6600 B3 came out... I hear it still beats the very latest Phenoms...

We need a strong AMD to ensure innovation in the market.

But so far, lots of talk... The market punishes companies like this, companies that are unable to prove that they have a sensible strategic gameplan, and whose senior management, who, coincidentally are responsible for the strategic decision making, appear to be leaving (at least some of them).

I think the merger was a waste of time and energy,and AMD is even themslves admitting such slowly but surely,but whatever my feelings,to think fruits could be gained this early on is a bit much.I mean really ? Give it some time,and NO,a year or so is NOT enough.
I think only in 2 to 3 years,will we be able to fully say if it was a worthwhile endeavor over
the long haul.

 

[TechHead]

@Atech - chill.. you want to discuss the merits of Intel's platforms, this is not the forum for it.

No flames please, all of you. Keep it on topic.

 

[RangerSVT]

Where did I ever say --anything-- about Intel? This is the AMD forum... If you want to talk about Intel, go to that forum.

In the mean time this is the AMD forum, so lets keep things on topic please.

The true words of a fanboy.

"How dare you speaketh of intel in MY AMD Domain forum, be gone intel user, BE GONE!"

 

[MrWizard6600]

Lets consider that cost per die is somewhere around $31 give or take $5 then consider volume and make the appropriate calculations... You'll see that the low end makes a lot more money then the high end. The high end is just for bragging rights.

Bragging rights which can be used in public marketing and the all important road-map.

Umm it's cheaper.... DUH....

Yeah I think thats a big issue: I would love to see the cost of manufacturing AMDs one big die vs manufacturing the two smaller conroe's and fixing them to the same wafer.

 

[Manny Calavera]

Seems like AMD needed that investment to make payroll

Funny that you mention that, as that is the case.

How is AMD doing badly?

They still are competive in only sector that really matters which is low end.
They finally managed to make great video cards for important 150-200 $ segment.
They have new CPU which greatly reduced the gap beetween X2 and core duo.
But even at current prices they are going to sell them to people who won't need to do platform upgrade (big advantage which AMD has compared to intel and their never ending want a new CPU get a new revision of mobo story).
If they can reduce prices of quads to make them performance to price ratio competitive with intel they are all set for next year.

You guys can keep 1000$ 4 Ghz intel quads with $300 mobos I'll be perfectly happy with Amd quad at 2.6-2.8 if it comes into <150$ price range especially if they can make <100$ good CF mobos.

How,In two words ? : Massive Debt.

Fellas this is not hard to understand.

How is AMD, who not only is a generation already behind Intel and possible rumors of really being two generations behind going to somehow leap over that. How in God's holy name could AMD leap over two generations when their Phenom processors will bring in little to no cash because they have to be price competitive. Moreover they need that money not for R&D but just so they can pay the bloody payroll.

Moreover why would Dell, HP and other vendors choose AMD when all they have to do is see one bloody slide from Intel showing performance details between both camps. I won't even get into the supply side of things where Intel can just destroy AMD in manufacturing to satisfy the likes of Dell and other vendors. So why would Dell and other vendors in their right mind even bother. Remember way back when Dell would even refuse AMD processors even though they were quicker, do you really think he is going to be knocking on their door now?

This whole problem stems from Hector Ruiz and his ruining of AMD. AMD is failing because of management decisions. When ego rich CEO's like Hector throw in the towel its because the writing is all over the bloody wall. This man single handedly stagnated performance, kept prices high by not keeping his company competitive for us enthusiasts. Because with no competition we all get left with the above mentioned.

The only thing that would bring AMD back into the mix is them being bought out by a private party that would alleviate all the debt they currently have and somehow scrape the cash to start all over again for a killer product. Their debt is their undoing and it all can be laid at the feet of Hector Ruiz.

Someone with proper perspective.

Larrabee is not inteded for the high-end, it's a midrange product?

No,it will compete in all market segments,from the low end to the high end.

Intel has since the Core 2 Duo(when the chip only was know as Conroe) been very open about their plans/goals.
They havn't altered any statements to indicate anything else but a mid-range product.
It's about more than the process, the architechture means the world, just look at the preformance of AMD's 55nm GPU's

Wanna bet $10 that Larrabee is going to be mid-range?

How about 2 shares of Intel ? I have a few to spare

With the almost 11% hit since yesterday morning, AMD's market cap is around $6.29B now. AMD is only $900 million away from matching what it paid for ATI last year.

Mubadala Development has already taken a $75 million hit on it's $700 million investment.

I was just about to mention that.Ah,who knows.They know the stock will continue to take a tumble.?

 

[Manny Calavera]

Nothing like your own history to bite you in the ass.

One could make a sport out of it,as he has laid some real doozies on us over the last 6 months. Thats not close to the worst of it.

 

[MrWizard6600]

I liked the first duby post, I think he's at least partially correct.

Has anyone even considered the consequences if AMD were to release a stable 3.4Ghz SKU? It could very well happen, if AMD could only get their 65nm fab down.

 

[harpoon]

I liked the first duby post, I think he's at least partially correct.

Has anyone even considered the consequences if AMD were to release a stable 3.4Ghz SKU? It could very well happen, if AMD could only get their 65nm fab down.

It'll force Intel off the couch, for starters.

Isn't 3.4GHz asking a bit much though? Doesn't seem very realistic to me.

 

[Manny Calavera]

I liked the first duby post, I think he's at least partially correct.

Has anyone even considered the consequences if AMD were to release a stable 3.4Ghz SKU? It could very well happen, if AMD could only get their 65nm fab down.

I very much hope they can,and damn soon.Lets all hope the next spin works some magic for them.What do you think of both Kyle and Anand coming out and saying "they have lost a lot of faith in AMD" etc,etc... ? Kyle kept saying in ref to the roadmaps and 45nm on time : "I just cant/dont see it happening"

Hearing Kyle say outright,he "lobbied them heavily' to release a olive branch/low cost unlocked chips to the enthusiast community" was a wow moment for me,and very cool.Lets hope we see more of those types of moves from AMD.

 

[Manny Calavera]

It'll force Intel off the couch, for starters.

Isn't 3.4GHz asking a bit much though? Doesn't seem very realistic to me.

Maybe by Q3 or Q4 ? Or on oc'd chips released in late Q1 ?


Harkens me back to Anands opening line in his review :It seems surreal..." It does,its like a bad dream or a nightmare even.

I cant fault morfinx for saying otherwise,as I am sure he will,he'd never admit it,but morale must be very VERY low at AMD right now ! I am sure things will pickup but the shock of the reviews and community reaction.

 

[pxc]

One could make a sport out of it,as he has laid some real doozies on us over the last 6 months. Thats not close to the worst of it.

There's comedy gold in the last 16 months. There's just so many terribly bad predictions and cheerleading to choose from.

 

[APOLLO]

This Phenom launch is a spitting image of the Barcelona launch, and the K7 launce before it, and K6 launce before that and K5 launch before that, and the 486 launch before that, and the 386 launch before that. I cant think of a single launch where AMD took the lead right away. It has never happened in the history of the company. Ever.

What about the K8 launch a few years back?

 

[RiverRunsRed]

Who wrote the statement below doesn't know what he is talking about . Yes, low end is where the revenues come from but the high end, server chips, is where the profit comes from. Profit is the key, not the revenue. AMD can keep lowering its average selling price and get more and more market shares => It is self destructive. If low end gets profit, good for AMD. But its stupid management took the risk to produce expensive "true quad core" which runs slower, consumes more power than Intel's "fake quad core" and it hurts their profit margin since AMD is forced to sell new chips at low price. I have given up hopes on Phenom. But its server Barcelona chips are still competitive and if AMD can execute well, it can still come back and make profit. AMD is not dead yet and it still has hopes. Server market is the key to success for AMD>

So tell me what was wrong with that post. Everything in it is still equally true now as it was then.... Go ahead, I dare ya.... This Phenom launch is a spitting image of the Barcelona launch, and the K7 launce before it, and K6 launce before that and K5 launch before that, and the 486 launch before that, and the 386 launch before that. I cant think of a single launch where AMD took the lead right away. It has never happened in the history of the company. Ever.

Besides the low end is where the money is at, just as it always has been. If you thnk differently then prove it.

 

[Manny Calavera]

Who wrote the statement below doesn't know what he is talking about . Yes, low end is where the revenues come from but the high end, server chips, is where the profit comes from. Profit is the key, not the revenue. AMD can keep lowering its average selling price and get more and more market shares => It is self destructive. If low end gets profit, good for AMD. But its stupid management took the risk to produce expensive "true quad core" which runs slower, consumes more power than Intel's "fake quad core" and it hurts their profit margin since AMD is forced to sell new chips at low price. I have given up hopes on Phenom. But its server Barcelona chips are still competitive and if AMD can execute well, it can still come back and make profit. AMD is not dead yet and it still has hopes. Server market is the key to success for AMD>

They cant pay the bills,only selling server chips.

 

[madgun]

AMD needs to get it's act together and atleast offer something that's competitive. If we consider a Q6600 from Intel, the potential is not only on stock clocks but it's a magnificent overclocker as well.

 

[Scali2]

well the 6400+ is a very fast cpu theres a lot of mhz difference the 2. so the architecture aint too bad.

Isn't it?
The 6400+ reaches a much higher clockspeed EVEN on 90 nm.
Architecture is very much a factor in the clockspeeds you can reach.

Other than that, who cares about the architecture? I just said that in a lot of apps tested in this review, the 6400+ actually did about as good or better than the Phenom, while being much cheaper. So Phenom didn't exactly bring AMD closer to Intel, they're actually further away in terms of price/performance.

 

[Scali2]

But its stupid management took the risk to produce expensive "true quad core" which runs slower, consumes more power than Intel's "fake quad core" and it hurts their profit margin since AMD is forced to sell new chips at low price. I have given up hopes on Phenom.

Exactly, I've been saying this about the new Radeons aswell, mostly the 2900.
They are high-end chips sold as low-end parts. They're very expensive to design, very expensive to produce, but they're not bringing in the big bucks.
Phenom at this point is probably worse in financial terms than their X2 series, at this point. There just have to be much lower profit margins on the chips, because they're so expensive to produce. But the performance is not there, so they cannot demand the premium price they should.

The stock market seems to have collapsed completely after the first reviews of the Phenom. Let me just outright say it: The survival of AMD is in Intels hands now. One more price cut on the Q6600 (or the 45 nm mainstream CPUs which are less than two months away), and AMD is gone. I don't think anyone will invest now, it's time to pay up the debts.

 

[M1dknight]

I liked the first duby post, I think he's at least partially correct.

Has anyone even considered the consequences if AMD were to release a stable 3.4Ghz SKU? It could very well happen, if AMD could only get their 65nm fab down.

All it would do is make Intel respond with something faster (good for us)

Penryn appears have better IPC and appears to scale to higher clockspeeds much easier, I have not doubt if Intel had some real challenge they could pull out something atleast 0.2Ghz higher than whatever AMD can.

 

[duby229]

Yeah I think thats a big issue: I would love to see the cost of manufacturing AMDs one big die vs manufacturing the two smaller conroe's and fixing them to the same wafer.

Neither one of the makes that information public, but from what I understand it costs Intel 22$ per die give or take a few dollars, and it costs AMD 31$ per die give or take a few dollors. This is entirely guess work though based on the how many processors they make vs the costs associated with fabrication. I could be way off, but I think this is prolly pretty close.

 

[duby229]

What about the K8 launch a few years back?

The K8 didnt take the lead on launch.It was just coming on the heals of Barton which was getting trounced by the Northwood. So alot of people thought well this is an improvement at least.

Fast forward to today and the phenom launch and we have it launching on the heals of 65nm K8 which is getting trounced by Core2. But for some reason that I dont understand this one seems to e getting a much more negative reception. Feels a lot like the K6 launch to me.

 

[visaris]

Neither one of the makes that information public, but from what I understand it costs Intel 22$ per die give or take a few dollars, and it costs AMD 31$ per die give or take a few dollors. This is entirely guess work though based on the how many processors they make vs the costs associated with fabrication. I could be way off, but I think this is prolly pretty close.

Eh, I've heard different numbers is the recent past, but you don't seem to be off by more than a factor of 2 or so. Same general ballpark, and no one outside of the company really knows anyways.

Has anyone heard about the L3 clock speed yet? AMD was saying they were going to clock the L3+NB higher than the rest of the core for improved memory latency. Then, I read a review of the production Phenom version, and it ran the L3+NB at 2.0GHz, significantly lower than the rest of the core, which was @ 2.3GHz. This was on an AM2+ board as well... Well, I'm going to be buying a new AMD rig for Christmas, so I'll find out sooner or later... Still quite curious about it, though.

 

[visaris]

The survival of AMD is in Intels hands now. One more price cut on the Q6600 (or the 45 nm mainstream CPUs which are less than two months away), and AMD is gone. I don't think anyone will invest now, it's time to pay up the debts.

See, Scali, this is why you're in my sig. It's not enough for you that you get to make negative comments about AMD's lukewarm Phenoms and Phenom launch, you have to take it waaaayyyy over the edge. You have a tendency to say silly things like this: you're telling me that if Intel does one more price cut on one product AMD is gone... Even as AMD has been slowly gaining a tiny slice of share and their bottom line has been improving very slowly... Even while they have been competing with outdated products and haven't even offered a quad-core until now? :shrugs: It just seems like a really silly thing to claim.

While the Phenom is not clocking where AMD needs it to and seems to have a couple of issues that are holding back IPC just a bit (TLB + L3 problems), it is a quad-core, and the IPC is slightly better than K8. So, it seems that you're saying that AMD's minor improvement by offering Phenom and Barcelona will make them so terribly vulnerable that a single price cut by intel on a single product will break AMD? Sorry, man. I'm just not seeing any evidence for that. Hell, I don't even see any logic along side your claim whatsoever.....

Look, if you really want to predict AMD's demise, can you at least make a reasonable prediction? Perhaps you can come up with a list of conditions that isn't composed of the one item: "If Intel cuts the price of a single high-end product that is less than 3% of Intel's total production, AMD will BK." I mean, really.... wtf man... I know you can do better than spewing filth like that on the net. You're not that much of a f4nb0y.. are you?