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http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3160603
The highest number I'd heard till now was 8. This guy managed 11!
So with a "normal" defect rate of 5% in roughly 10,000,000 Xbox360s sold being 500,000 defective xbox360s. Each incident has a 5% chance of happening, so the probability is 1/20. The probability of it happening again is (1/20) * (1/20). The probabilty of a third occurence is (1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20)...etc.
So the chance of his case occuring is (1/20^11). In other words, one in 204800000000000.
Of course, that's assuming a "normal" defective rate of 5%. Seeing as how there aren't 204800000000000 Xbox360s in existence, this guy is ludicrously, unbelievably unlucky.
It has to be noted that probability measurements are only useful in predicting large-scale scenarios. In an anecdotal case like this, it's just for fun to see how terribly unlucky he is(Even with an extremely high defect rate of 20% he'd still be wildly unlucky). Occam's razor would say the defects are due to user error despite all his claims to the contrary.
The highest number I'd heard till now was 8. This guy managed 11!
So with a "normal" defect rate of 5% in roughly 10,000,000 Xbox360s sold being 500,000 defective xbox360s. Each incident has a 5% chance of happening, so the probability is 1/20. The probability of it happening again is (1/20) * (1/20). The probabilty of a third occurence is (1/20)*(1/20)*(1/20)...etc.
So the chance of his case occuring is (1/20^11). In other words, one in 204800000000000.
Of course, that's assuming a "normal" defective rate of 5%. Seeing as how there aren't 204800000000000 Xbox360s in existence, this guy is ludicrously, unbelievably unlucky.
It has to be noted that probability measurements are only useful in predicting large-scale scenarios. In an anecdotal case like this, it's just for fun to see how terribly unlucky he is(Even with an extremely high defect rate of 20% he'd still be wildly unlucky). Occam's razor would say the defects are due to user error despite all his claims to the contrary.
