NVIDIA Reports Problem With Laptop Chips

vengence said:
lol. Let me clarify that a little bit. A stocks LONG TERM AVERAGE price is affected by the companies performance, no doubt. The short term fluctuations are governed by speculation. Lets look at this move. With 500M shares a 6$ per share drop means the market's valuation of the company dropped by 3 Billion today. No matter what kind of math you do it is going to be hard to come up with numbers that support a 3 Billion dollar drop on a single quater's earnings drop of 150M and a 1 time cost of earnings hit of 200M.
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A contrarian would say that this is a correction, that it is the previous price that was the result of irrational exuberance (albeit an exuberance tempered quite a bit from a $39/shr 52-wk high).

With a recent downgrade of their quarterly revenue expectations and real manufacturing problems, there's nothing speculative about this.

The idea that this will not affect operations is laughable. A low price/earnings (especially with lots of cash on hand) makes them a more attractive takeover target for the likes of Intel.

It will also affect their ability to attract investment dollars and borrow money, but not necessarily in the negative (were it not for the aforementioned real-world problems).
 
For the guys looking at buying, here are some things to think about:

-- ATI just released a cheaper graphics card (which is actually competitive) that cuts into Nvidia's primary channel of income.

-- Nvidia has very limited growth to begin with (they haven't branched out to other areas in years! I think their last bit of growth was based on gaining ground with motherboards and SLI). ...that's why you don't see Nvidia stock gaining much after earnings reports.

The big picture (macroeconomics):

-- Starbucks, one of the stars of the market in the recent past has announced that it's closing its door on 600 of its stores. Think of this as a thermometer for the economy.

-- 6 months in a row, U.S. jobs been lost. The total is something like 438,000

-- Most households are spending their disposable income on the excessive gas prices.

Just because a stock hit a price in the past, doesn't mean it will recover automatically. Look at AMD, I remember it in the 20's and it hasn't been there in a while. There's a lot of things to consider but, I wouldn't jump on NVDA right now and I wouldn't tell my friends to. Nvidia caters to "wants" more than it does "needs" and right now this is a "need" based economy. ...don't forget to look at the big picture while evaluating a single sector. That's just as important!
 
vengence said:
lol. Let me clarify that a little bit. A stocks LONG TERM AVERAGE price is affected by the companies performance, no doubt. The short term fluctuations are governed by speculation. Lets look at this move. With 500M shares a 6$ per share drop means the market's valuation of the company dropped by 3 Billion today. No matter what kind of math you do it is going to be hard to come up with numbers that support a 3 Billion dollar drop on a single quater's earnings drop of 150M and a 1 time cost of earnings hit of 200M.


I would think it would be illegal to you, as I'd guess anything you learn from products covered by NDAs would represent insider information.
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Now that was MUCH better stated. Thanks. :) And still analysts are what is wrong with the market.

I do that since we are exposed to forward-looking material it would be possible to categorize it is all illegal/insider trading, but the instance would have to stack up right.

What I do know is that since what we write can impact the companies stock price, it is simply not ethical for us to be involved in the buying and selling of NVDA stock.
 
vengence said:
XamediX, have a seizure while hitting the post button? :p
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Haha, either my work's internet took a dump or H's forum server took one in the amidst of my posting. I'm glad they edited for me quick enough, I was so embarrassed...
 
XamediX said:
Haha, either my work's internet took a dump or H's forum server took one in the amidst of my posting. I'm glad they edited for me quick enough, I was so embarrassed...
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I've been noticing issues with the forum for the past week. Sometimes it is slow at loading/posting. sometimes I get a database errors. So your not alone.
 
What I do know is that since what we write can impact the companies stock price, it is simply not ethical for us to be involved in the buying and selling of NVDA stock.
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Sometimes I wonder how much AMD stock The Inquirer owns... :p


contrarian would say that this is a correction, that it is the previous price that was the result of irrational exuberance (albeit an exuberance tempered quite a bit from a $39/shr 52-wk high).

With a recent downgrade of their quarterly revenue expectations and real manufacturing problems, there's nothing speculative about this.
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Either way, there was either speculation before (the price was way to high for the valuation of the company, i.e. speculation) or it's speculation now (the price has adjusted way more than it should have if the previous value was a fair valuation.)
 
$5.30 2:48pm 07/03/2008 :eek::eek::eek::eek:
Bye bye nVidia
Matrox or Via may be the next competitors. ;)
 
After this and a new directX on the horizen nVida = CueCat
 
I wonder if we'll now see Nvidia opening up those SLI licenses to Intel sometime soon. Cash is cash is cash.
 
Since we all know the company is actually fine, and will be back to snuff soon enough, doesn't this make this one hell of a stock to jump on this low?

I remember the old days, when I was a stupid idiot and didn't realize what the Tramiels were doing with Atari.... they made the stock go from $16 to $.25 and back again THREE TIMES over the course of 8 years.

If I was paying any attention, I could have made a fortune. :eek::rolleyes::p
 
Hrmm. I have an Asus G1 with a 7700 Go in it. The system does run a bit hot, but nothing unstable. I peak at around 135ish degrees F. I just put a two slot cooling fan at the rear of the laptop and seems to do the trick to keeping it around 120f. No crashes or graphics glitches, so I doubt this will be an issue for me if my card's listed as one of the problem models. (And yes, I mean card. It's an MXM card.)
 
Wow, talk about Karma...

Here's my story, happened today.

I was reading [H] from my Dell XPS m1330 laptop, and just got to the nVIDIA stock article when my screen completely scrambled. And then the laptop BSOD and died. So I turn reboot it and get greeted by a friendly WHITE screen, no BIOS, no nothing...

... After a surprisingly painless experience with XPS Tech Support line, I spent maybe a total of 1 minute waiting for technician and he actually spoke english. He told me to initiate initialize some built-in diagnostic by holding Fn button etc etc

... After it was all said and done, he told me the dedicated GPU AND motherboard will have to be replaced. The "coffin" should be here on monday...

The kick is... the dedicated GPU I had was the nVIDIA GeForce 8400M GS.

It could be just a nasty coincidence, or the 8xxxM chips could be the chips in question.
 
The Go 7700 and 8XXXM suck, that's just it. The 8600M suffer from a series of issues from overheating, downclocking while in use, stuttering and many many others, these at the ones I've had to deal with.
 
vengence said:
They have 1.6B in cash and near cash combined, why would they do something like that?
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when you're gonna be fronting to pay for all these laptops gpu's to get fixed, and they're lowering the cost of the GTX280 by a 100-175 dollars, these two problems combined could cut that "profit" in half in a few months.
 
RADEoN said:
when you're gonna be fronting to pay for all these laptops gpu's to get fixed, and they're lowering the cost of the GTX280 by a 100-175 dollars, these two problems combined could cut that "profit" in half in a few months.
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They've already said the cost will only be 150-200M. They've also said they are looking to get reimbursed by either insurance or the manufactorers.

They're lowering their price they sell the GTX to the makers by 90 dollars. Not 100-175. And this has already been factored in.

So they're cash on hand will drop by ~13% and thier gross income will drop by a predicted ~10%. Yeah, they're going to go out of buisness tommorow.:rolleyes:
 
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