One APU to Rule Them All?

psoomah

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Per the CES AMD roadmap Kaveri will be available Q4, 2013. Ergo, the design was finalized when Microsoft and Sony are rumored to have 86ed their existing next gen plans for something else. Apparently AMD literally made Microsoft and Sony an offer they couldn't refuse.

Per AMD"s CES slideshow - "(Gaming) represents a massive market opportunity for AMD".

That's a VERY strong statement from AMD. But what other large and lucrative market segment offers such opportunity? It's the only large market AMD has the slightest chance to all but totally own. It's exactly what the slide says - a 'massive opportunity'. And every indication is they are intensely focused on, and putting the necessary resources into, taking full advantage of that opportunity.

Kaveri - Steamroller cores, extensive HSA implementation, unified address space, fully shared memory, GCN 2.0 ... add in AMD's 'mix and match' interface ... what else comes within a country mile of meeting next gen console performance/power/future proofing needs? Including Steam Box.

Based on a working assumption AMD is getting their Kaveri architecture into the Xbox 3, PS 4 and Steam Box, there are wide ranging implications.

A deep and comprehensive development ecosystem will grow up around that architecture. All console and PC game engines will key on that architecture. The entire Steam Box Linux based console and PC ecosystem will grow around that architecture.

In a year Kaveri will become the processor of choice for PC gamers, in two years Intel will be a bit player in computer gaming.

AIB graphics boards based on Kaveri GCN 2.0 will have a substantial innate advantage over Nvidia's architecture. This time next year Kaveri + an 8xxx AIB will be the go to system. In two years Nvidia will be fading from the AIB scene and all but defunct in OEM x86 tablet, netbook, laptop and desktop markets. There will be nothing to underwrite their professional market cards.

The professional graphics players will see the writing on the wall and start moving their engines to AMD's HSA architecture. It's only a matter of time before Nvidia loses most of that market to AMD HSA cards.

Taking the various markets Kaveri will play in and the legendary status it might attain, I would venture AMD sales of Kaveri and variants might reach into the hundreds of millions.

Hence my thread title ... One APU to Rule Them All.

Kaveri appears to have the potential and AMD the drive to make that a reality.

Might be a very opportune time to pick up some AMD stock.

All in all one might have to concede in picking Rory Read, AMD's board chose ... ... wisely.
 
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I'm a huge AMD fan, but not blinded by how far they've fallen behind in areas :( Doesn't mean I'll switch though haha

I too feel like the APU is a very under appreciated and utilized product :\ I've held out buying any tablet because I've wanted a Windows Tablet, but one that is capable of more than what Atom offers, unfortunately there have been only two expensive options: Acer W500 and MSI WinPad 110W :( Hopefully Vizio's isn't too expensive, I don't want to wait for Temash, waited too long already lol

Anyways, I don't think all you've said will happen, despite it making logical sense (in theory)! I always hold out hope though since, alas, I am an AMD fanATic lol Really do hope they can get their mojo back by gaining momentum in other markets, so that they can then get back to competing with Intel on the Desktop and Laptop market. Plus, doesn't help Intel and nV revert to childish tactics of paying companies and developers to favor their products :\

In the end, fingers crossed!!
 
This all sounds great on paper, but to think intel and nvidia are just going to sit back and watch this happen seems more like a fantasy.

I really do hope the steambox / linux gaming takes off though. I would ditch windows in a heart beat
 
This all sounds great on paper, but to think intel and nvidia are just going to sit back and watch this happen seems more like a fantasy.

I really do hope the steambox / linux gaming takes off though. I would ditch windows in a heart beat

Once AMD is in all the consoles what choice do they have?
 
The power of big numbers? There are about 140 million consoles between the PS3 and XBox360, so I guess that the market is huge compared to PC gaming.

There are two future buzzwords you might want to watch in terms of consumer electronics, and one is 4k (horizontal resolution) displays and 3-d gaming. I think that both next-gen consoles will skip 4k just because of a lack of media/movie content for the forseeable future. The local and/or streaming requirements will prohibit widespread uptake for at least 5 years.

On the 3-D gaming front, you're still looking at doubling the GPU requirements as you double the frames required to render a different frame for each eye, and consumer consoles tend to try to meet TDP requirements that will blur the lines between a silent PC and a noisy console.

Where the future consoles have an advantage is in software licensing. Unless a lot of work is done on the content management side, where game ownership goes beyond the original distribution media into a "mini-cloud" with network and session-based authentication, so that you can still go to a lan party, and still give a game away, you probably will not be able to be the 2nd game owner without some sort of payment even if you have the original media in your possession. That is, unless all console content use becomes cloud-based with an original owner's ability to "snatch" and "release" their license to use the game.

No one will "own" a game anymore on consoles, and even if John Carmack wanted you to try a beta, he'd have to figure out a way to bypass or work with the content control.

Just IMHO though, and I had a few beers.
 
Consoles maybe...

But how are AMD going to get HP/Dell/Toshiba/Fujitsu/Acer/Asus etc. to switch from their 95% Intel basis?

It's an opportunity. Not a certainty. Therefore I will put my money on a missed opportunity.

The world will keep turning to the beat of Intel's drum as normal.
 
The problem can only be resolved by getting partners like Vizio. Just create a market for your product elsewhere. All those years wasted energy on companies that in return screwed them over harshly like Dell.

Btw AMD can not grow beyond what they are doing now slowly, very slow.
 
OP,can I get $10 worth of whatever it is you're on? AMD has graphics cores in the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii, and IBM provides PPC-based CPUs in both of those consoles as well. There is no Intel to be found, and only the PS3 uses anything by Nvidia. The 360 and Wii both greatly overshadow the PS3's market share, yet AMD is still continuing to suffer. Selling all of these chips may help save AMD's ass, but to say Intel or Nvidia will suffer as a result is just plain idiotic. Intel has an immense amount of market share compared to AMD, and Nvidia is showing no signs of falling behind in the GPU sector. You seem to think if a game is made for a console that runs AMD hardware that when it gets ported to PC it won't run on Nvidia hardware or something (obviously, that isn't the case at all).
 
OP,can I get $10 worth of whatever it is you're on? AMD has graphics cores in the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii, and IBM provides PPC-based CPUs in both of those consoles as well. There is no Intel to be found, and only the PS3 uses anything by Nvidia. The 360 and Wii both greatly overshadow the PS3's market share, yet AMD is still continuing to suffer. Selling all of these chips may help save AMD's ass, but to say Intel or Nvidia will suffer as a result is just plain idiotic. Intel has an immense amount of market share compared to AMD, and Nvidia is showing no signs of falling behind in the GPU sector. You seem to think if a game is made for a console that runs AMD hardware that when it gets ported to PC it won't run on Nvidia hardware or something (obviously, that isn't the case at all).

Minor correction: The PS3 is pretty close to the 360 in over-all worldwide sales. Maybe even slightly above if the estimate by the IDC is correct.
 
it is all how the contracts are structured if amd negotiated a strong contracts for the next xbox/ps4/wiiu/steambox it could be very conceivable that all the wins this generation of consoles are paying the bills for amds 28nm cpu/apu/soc development. as the console makers have the money to toss at amd to get their chip in their box and on the market faster.
 
Consoles are generally sold initially at a loss hardware-wise with the expectation that software licensing will allow the seller to re-coup their investment over the expected life of the console. As a console matures through improved process technology, hardware costs generally become low enough to offer a hardware-only profit.

An Atari 2600, SNES, PS3, and XBox 360 might have more in common with each other than they will with future consoles in that we might see a departure from standardized performance for each platform, and will actually see consoles tiered to provide different levels of performance and immersion. Games will be able to "run" w/o all the eye-candy turned on, but if you get a better "experience" if you pay more for a higher-end console.

As far as the rewards AMD could potentially reap, I don' see AMD APU technology as offering anything compelling. Even if AMD had a massive APU with far more stream processors than even the A10 has, it will run into DDR3 vs GDDR5 memory issues, problems with die and cache size, and problems with removing heat from the die.

But then again, I had a few beers.
 
Well I guess any APU for consoles would be a custom part anyway so it may have different cache architecture and more optimised connections to the other core parts. It wont have to send the data round the houses like it does with current PC setups.
 
Consoles are generally sold initially at a loss hardware-wise with the expectation that software licensing will allow the seller to re-coup their investment over the expected life of the console. As a console matures through improved process technology, hardware costs generally become low enough to offer a hardware-only profit.

What does that have to do with AMD? Losses are the console manufacturers' to absorb and offset, not the suppliers'.
 
Its an interesting future ahead. In my workplace i see people giving up their desktop PC for Ipads more and more frequently. At this moment, i dont think Intel's future is that bright either. To be honest, there isnt compelling reason to upgrade from a 4 year old i7-920
 
Its an interesting future ahead. In my workplace i see people giving up their desktop PC for Ipads more and more frequently. At this moment, i dont think Intel's future is that bright either. To be honest, there isnt compelling reason to upgrade from a 4 year old i7-920

and what does this have to do with anything relating to this post?
 
and what does this have to do with anything relating to this post?

Not so much as to the point as it could but basically it shows what AMD is doing now. It ditches the launch for 2013 for Steamroller CPU and focus on APU which have very good use in tablets/netbooks.
 
The point is that far too many put too much emphasis on pure straight line benchmark performance.

That's not really what modern computing in the mainstream is all about anymore.

Fewer and fewer people really need 70% of Intels CPU line up to get what they need done.

The world is a changing.
 
I will argue that maybe a 3770K is over kill for most gamers, but a high end GPU will always be a requirement for me. You just cant get the same level of gfx quality with an APU and allows developers to push the envelope past the garbage they have in consoles
 
The point is that far too many put too much emphasis on pure straight line benchmark performance.

That's not really what modern computing in the mainstream is all about anymore.

Fewer and fewer people really need 70% of Intels CPU line up to get what they need done.

The world is a changing.

I agree, I have an 890FX + PhII 1190T and you know what I game with? A8-3850 on an A75, same graphics cards (sadly just dual 5770s still), and if it wasn't up to the task I wouldn't be rocking the A8 :D It's a quad-core, enough for most stuff, so the extra 2 cores don't really help much. I can OC the A8 to 3.5GHz but leave it around 3-3.1GHz since it's stable at stock voltage. Why I use it though is the superior IMC (managed DDR3-2590 with no effort) that results in better memory performance. (I just wish CPU-Tweaker would've added support for Llano since it's essentially a Thuban, sans L3 and 2-cores, with a further improved IMC)

My point, since I sorta rambled, is that daglesj has a point: we don't really need the most expensive thing and AMD can deliver, for cheaper (as it always has been). I think it's fair to say that Intel recognizes this, despite knowing they have the upper-hand in virtually every other way, and is why they have been "convincing" companies to use AMD as little as possible :rolleyes:

As previously said, maybe the Vizio will spark something that the Acer and MSI tablets couldn't, so when Temash finally releases the main group of manufacturers will adopt AMD for tablets. *fingers crossed*



You just cant get the same level of gfx quality with an APU and allows developers to push the envelope past the garbage they have in consoles

Quite right and I don't think (at least I hope) that anyone quite expects envelope-pushing performance from an APU's IGP. However, there is something to look forward to for APU owners in that regards... I'm no console fan, but I'll admit that they've managed to create some pretty darn good looking titles on such ancient and limited hardware. That being said, the APU in these next gen consoles shouldn't be too far off from consumer-grade chips, and that could really open the doors for gaming. A midranged laptop with an APU will thus be able to play console games at that same quality that they are producing (albeit at 720p unless manufacturers start getting their crap together and offer the cheaper laptops with 1080p screens). Still, the APU graphics are still surprisingly capable as I loaded up Skyrim at the graphics settings I used for my CrossFired 5770s @1080p and it was more or less playable. Smooth, no I won't fudge the truth lol It did drop some times and get a little choppy, but that's not surprising given it's running above-Ultra settings (lots of INF tweaks to improve shadows, distance, etc). Now add in a 7560M (or whatever) for Hybrid CrossFire and you'll no doubt be capable of that level of graphics, yet you're still not creating a power hungry product that people wouldn't want.
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What does that have to do with AMD? Losses are the console manufacturers' to absorb and offset, not the suppliers'.

Good point, but it all depends on how the supply contracts are written. In order to win a supplier contract, AMD might have to agree terms that include assuming a portion of risk (initial loss) vs. greater future profits over the expected life of the console.
 
Console manufacturers make their money on royalties, licensing and software sales. No contract will be written that would share those profits with parts suppliers. It has been the same story with consoles since the beginning of time.
 
True.

It would be mad-stupid for a console manufacturer to do revenue sharing on the software front, but in terms of shipped units, there might be some profit to be gained as a supplier. Initial units could be produced at a loss, and then later at a gain depending on the life of the console. Or, initial units could be priced at a premium at launch, with subsequently less profit over the course of the life cycle of the console.

I'm kind of thinking that AMD might have a unique position in the next-gen console market as nVidia has nothing on the CPU front, and Intel has nothing on the GPU front. As skeptical as I am about desktop Trinity as a solution, I think that AMD does have something to offer vertically in the "narrow" space of consoles.
 
Once AMD is in all the consoles what choice do they have?

Who cares? Gamecube/Wii/360/WiiU all used ATI/AMD, and they still failed to take over the world, or even just nVidia and Intel. You'd be dreaming if you thought AMD was going to take over anytime in the near future. To think they'll do it in just a years time is nothing short of delusional. Particularly as it relates to PC gamers, most of whom have zero interest in APUs
 
Who cares? Gamecube/Wii/360/WiiU all used ATI/AMD, and they still failed to take over the world, or even just nVidia and Intel. You'd be dreaming if you thought AMD was going to take over anytime in the near future. To think they'll do it in just a years time is nothing short of delusional. Particularly as it relates to PC gamers, most of whom have zero interest in APUs

On the contray, finding another PC gamer is getting to be pretty rare. Nearly everyone I work with IS department of about 35 use an Xbox 360, PS3, Wii for gaming. The only exceptions are myself and one other -- only because world of warcraft hasnt been ported to a console.

I dont think people "care" about the APU, but i do think pc gaming is on a decline. I actually think Intel is going to be in an awkward situation in the next few years. ARM coming into datacenters, apple switching away from x86 to arm, pc computing on the decline in general.

it will be interesting if intel ends up muscling their way into tablets/smartphones.
 
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On the contray, finding another PC gamer is getting to be pretty rare. Nearly everyone I work with IS department of about 35 use an Xbox 360, PS3, Wii for gaming. The only exceptions are myself and one other -- only because world of warcraft hasnt been ported to a console.

I dont think people "care" about the APU, but i do think pc gaming is on a decline. I actually think Intel is going to be in an awkward situation in the next few years. ARM coming into datacenters, apple switching away from x86 to arm, pc computing on the decline in general.

it will be interesting if intel ends up muscling their way into tablets/smartphones.

Hardly contrary considering I was never comparing PC gamers to consoles gamers. I said most PC gamers (however little or many there are) aren't going to want to game on an APU thus throwing a major monkey wrench as to AMD taking over Intel for PC gamers. Much less in 1 year.

As to PC gaming dying... well... We've all heard that for, what, about 10 years now? I don't see Steam shrinking in volume any.
 
In terms of PC gaming, Intel has nothing to compare itself to vs. an AMD ALU and/or ALU + discrete video card.
 
Some bold predictions in the opening post. I don't think it will be that easy. It seems as though the 3 companies (perhaps 5 if you include Qualcomm and Samsung) are all converging on a similar point of performance. ARMv8 based Tegra and Exynos are likely to compete at this level as well.
 
Consoles maybe...

But how are AMD going to get HP/Dell/Toshiba/Fujitsu/Acer/Asus etc. to switch from their 95% Intel basis?

It's an opportunity. Not a certainty. Therefore I will put my money on a missed opportunity.

The world will keep turning to the beat of Intel's drum as normal.

Exactly my thought....
 
Hardly contrary considering I was never comparing PC gamers to consoles gamers. I said most PC gamers (however little or many there are) aren't going to want to game on an APU thus throwing a major monkey wrench as to AMD taking over Intel for PC gamers. Much less in 1 year.

As to PC gaming dying... well... We've all heard that for, what, about 10 years now? I don't see Steam shrinking in volume any.

LoL, its true. They have been saying that, I have always denied it because there is no replacement for a mouse and keyboard. However, the PS3 does accept mice and keyboards and with third party adapters you can even use them on games. PS4 is suppose to be announced in march and launched later this year. A refresh to both the PS3 and Xbox 360 surely will have some people switching away from their PC.

The fact that the PS4 is based on an x86 chip should in theory make it a lot easier to port the MMO's over that have always been exclusive to PC as well? just talking out loud, but if i could play wow on a PS4/Xbox 720 with my mouse and keyboard id be completely done with PC gaming.

the hardware specs of the new consoles are not impressive, but the fact the six year old ones can play games in 1080p then im not to worried in loss of visual quality.

steam is also coming to consoles:

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/8/3852144/gabe-newell-interview-steam-box-future-of-gaming
 
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