Facebook Only Has 5 Years Left

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Facebook only has five years left? Well, if you believe this guy, that is the case. For once, I think I might actually agree with an industry “expert.” It’s not that I think the site is bad, I just think that something else will come along and do to Facebook what Facebook did to MySpace.

Dr Cole, who predicted the decline of MySpace at an earlier appearance he made for Ninemsn in Sydney four years ago, said it would take longer for Facebook's dominance to be challenged because of its global scale.
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Hard to say. People's been predicting the downfall of World of Warcraft for quite some time now and it's still millions of players strong. When it comes to internet games and sites where close friends and family members gather around, it's hard to break it up. Nobody likes to be alone, even online.
 
What killed MySpace is the junked up pages and layout. I could never have seen my parents using MySpace but I do see them using Facebook to connect to old friends.
 
Facebook and Myspace are fundamentally different in just about every way possible. I think it's likely something will come along and one-up Facebook eventually, but I think it's entirely unfair to compare it to Myspace's downfall.
 
M'eh...I can see it. I left facebook a coupla months ago, and I'm not missing anything. In fact, the people who are actually my friends have a great deal more direct contact now that they cannot just post or tag me. I prefer it.

Facebook tends to make everything more voyeuristic and impersonal, at least that's what I found. Not my thing.
 
Facebook's interface and theme = simple, organized, professional.

MySpace = made by a 9-year old emo
 
Facebook is one of those internet fads that I think will die down after awhile. Either due to people losing interest or something better coming along. Tough to say, but five years seems even a little optimistic to me.
 
Facebook as it is now would probably be replaced by something better, but I think they are aware of that and with the capital they have will continue to improve it to keep it relevant. I think it's here to stay for a while.
 
My only fear is that something even worse will replace it.
Don't underestimate the effect of 5 more years of dumbing down.
 
Like 99.9% of the stuff on the interwebs, Facebook will probably eventually lose popularity and slowly die off. At which point Zuckerburg will probably sell it to a large company that thinks they can revive it. Odds are this will be due to some new upstart claiming to be better than Facebook or something. However, 5 years is probably a bit too short time-wise. I find it extremely hard to believe that a company with over 1 billion clients (most of which are probably "addicted") could possibly be completely gone in 5 years. The only thing online bigger than Facebook is Google. It would take a collapse of epic proportions for a company with that much going for it to be gone in such a short time period.
 
Well... Zuckerberg says he isn't sure about himself. Seems he really wants that GMail API block reversed...

Link
Zuckerberg may say that Facebookers don't "own" their friends' email addresses. But surely they "own" the addresses they've imported from services such as Gmail. And during Zuckerberg's Tuesday appearance, it was pointed out that Facebookers can manually download their friends' addresses if they want — and that his arguments sounded like sophistry.

But Zuckerberg reiterated that the situation was "not black and white." And later in the conversation, he repeated that he's not sure the company's policy is the right one.
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Check my quotes....

He's wrong, it will be 3 years from now.

Mark my words.
 
King Icewind said:
Google will come out with something and beat it.
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Don't think so. Facebook is one of the very few things that can basically go toe-to-toe with Google and survive right now. Besides Google tried to release their own social networking service (Buzz) not too long ago, and it is lightyears from even really being called "competition" to Facebook.
 
bpizzle1 said:
Don't think so. Facebook is one of the very few things that can basically go toe-to-toe with Google and survive right now. Besides Google tried to release their own social networking service (Buzz) not too long ago, and it is lightyears from even really being called "competition" to Facebook.
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For those who don't know... Google is supposedly making a huge new "social" website called "Google ME" ---- yes, it's clever and catchy. And it will surely not be as horrible as Google Buzz did.... google will surely make it better.

And you don't know much about Facebook or internet marketing guy.... Facebook is just myspace with a bunch of investors (microsoft even owns 1% of facebook now, wonder why?)

Facebook is already dying, and the hype they created with all those revenue dollars (and the gay movie) will surely die out soon. It's going downhill, you just are to infused with using it, and seeing so much on TV that you see it as something huge. Watch, once the BS hype and money flow dies, so will it.

If the TV shows and news channels all said "Join us on myspace and twitter!" 3 years ago... facebook would no exist for sure. More people would be on myspace and claim facebook is a copy of it.

But since all the older people, and non-tech people all saw Facebook spammed on TV (ala JOIN US ON FACEBOOK!), it had that huge bubble of users joining.

Facebook = dying and dead within 3 years, I always predict shit like this.

Like Crocs... I predicted they would fail too on fool.com about 2 or 3 years ago. Now NOBODY talks about crocks, nobody.
 
Luxor said:
For those who don't know... Google is supposedly making a huge new "social" website called "Google ME" ---- yes, it's clever and catchy. And it will surely not be as horrible as Google Buzz did.... google will surely make it better.

And you don't know much about Facebook or internet marketing guy.... Facebook is just myspace with a bunch of investors (microsoft even owns 1% of facebook now, wonder why?)

Facebook is already dying, and the hype they created with all those revenue dollars (and the gay movie) will surely die out soon. It's going downhill, you just are to infused with using it, and seeing so much on TV that you see it as something huge. Watch, once the BS hype and money flow dies, so will it.

If the TV shows and news channels all said "Join us on myspace and twitter!" 3 years ago... facebook would no exist for sure. More people would be on myspace and claim facebook is a copy of it.

But since all the older people, and non-tech people all saw Facebook spammed on TV (ala JOIN US ON FACEBOOK!), it had that huge bubble of users joining.

Facebook = dying and dead within 3 years, I always predict shit like this.

Like Crocs... I predicted they would fail too on fool.com about 2 or 3 years ago. Now NOBODY talks about crocks, nobody.
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I'm bookmarking this so that in 3 years from now I'll laugh at your predictions. Where do you live by the way? Crocs are all over the city here in Chicago.
 
I definitely think it is going to take more than 3-5 years to get rid of facebook. I bet the only thing that is really going to shut facebook down is if they keep screwing with the privacy settings. People still tend to get super paranoid about their online privacy despite them VOLUNTARILY putting the information online.
 
Welcome to the age of ADD. Facebook is at its peak currently, the most thing. Slowly and surely people will try to create new hip things, and it will last only a few years. 3-4 years at the most.
 
Luxor said:
For those who don't know... Google is supposedly making a huge new "social" website called "Google ME" ---- yes, it's clever and catchy. And it will surely not be as horrible as Google Buzz did.... google will surely make it better.

And you don't know much about Facebook or internet marketing guy.... Facebook is just myspace with a bunch of investors (microsoft even owns 1% of facebook now, wonder why?)

Facebook is already dying, and the hype they created with all those revenue dollars (and the gay movie) will surely die out soon. It's going downhill, you just are to infused with using it, and seeing so much on TV that you see it as something huge. Watch, once the BS hype and money flow dies, so will it.

If the TV shows and news channels all said "Join us on myspace and twitter!" 3 years ago... facebook would no exist for sure. More people would be on myspace and claim facebook is a copy of it.

But since all the older people, and non-tech people all saw Facebook spammed on TV (ala JOIN US ON FACEBOOK!), it had that huge bubble of users joining.

Facebook = dying and dead within 3 years, I always predict shit like this.

Like Crocs... I predicted they would fail too on fool.com about 2 or 3 years ago. Now NOBODY talks about crocks, nobody.
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I have some tinfoil hats I think you may be interested it :rolleyes:

You could say the same nonsense you're spouting about any company on the planet. If a company never marketed itself or created any hype for it's products they would all die. You could say the same thing about Google and its products, Apple and its products, or even Microsoft and it's products.

3 years ago TV shows and the like DID say crap like "check us out on Myspace." Sure, they didn't say anything about Twitter back then because it was just getting started. Facebook is still around, and it's bigger than ever.

Regardless of hype, Facebook is too ingrained into society at this point to simply die off. In the same way people simply say "Google it" when they mean to search the internet, people also say "Facebook me" when they want you to contact them.

Comparing something like Crocs to Facebook is retarded.
 
I really think Facebook has some staying power. People have a lot invested into their profiles and it would take something leaps and bounds better to get them to migrate to another service. Maybe not even then. What Facebook does it does really well.
Art show on Friday? Promote it on Facebook. Oh cool, there will be 20 people I know there.
House party on Sunday? Oh cool, Titsmagee and her douche boyfriend are gona be there.
That cute girl in your poly sci class? Oh yeah, she's single.

Anyway my point is that it does social networking very very well and I think it's too ingrained into social interaction at this point for it to just go away. It's everywhere! We've never had this market penetration of smart phones, net books, wifi...all of it feeds a Facebook lifestyle and it's only going to get worse. The reason Facebook works is because everyone is on it and it's hard for me to imagine a service soooo much better that millions and millions of people will create new accounts and just ditch a system that already works great.

Historically websites have a pretty short life span, I get that. However Facebook is a communication tool that is significantly changing they way humans interact. I don't think it's just another website; I think it's the new email.
 
bpmurrGT said:
What killed MySpace is the junked up pages and layout. I could never have seen my parents using MySpace but I do see them using Facebook to connect to old friends.
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Myspace tried to change too much of it's CORE components and architecture integrity. Once they began to strive to be a 'facebook', they flopped and so did all the users who were at it's fan base. Facebook has not changed much of this and generally humankind does not like change.
 
Dancing with the stars book?
jersey-book-snore?
Books-of-faces-of-our-lives?

I'd laugh if the next facebook ripoff is a play on words on facebook.
 
I think what a lot of people fail to realize is that we are entering the Rockefeller era of the internet, where a handful of enormous companies control pretty much everything worth controlling. Those companies are primarily competing with each other. Any newcomer that's worth a look will be quickly gobbled up by one of them.
 
I think facebook will probably stick around for a good while due to how it appeals to a much wider audience than the niche trendy/emo kids of myspace. It appears to have reached pretty far in the "web 2.0" era, being integrated in so many different ways. Same with twitter. Despite how much hate they get on the forums, these things had a bigger impact and a wider spread than the social networks of the past. Even during news coverage on TV, I noticed the distinctive "T" of the twitter logo in the corner. It would be pretty hard to see these things going down "quickly" (not that 5 years is all that quick).
 
I think it's inevitable that something will over shine facebook in time, just as IM client usage has gone down due to social networking sites. Something new, easier and better will come about and all the sheeple will move on to that lol.
 
Dan_D said:
Facebook is one of those internet fads that I think will die down after awhile. Either due to people losing interest or something better coming along. Tough to say, but five years seems even a little optimistic to me.
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I agree, but i personally used facebook for about 4 years and just shut it down... I enjoy the twitter musing though, but that will eventually die off..
 
I agree.. facebook used to be NOTHING, this shitty little nothing site that noone cared about since they were all using myspace.. so its super easy to see it being replaced..
 
Fads aren't permanent. Facebook will make way for something more convenient or 'exciting', but (inevitably) even more invasive. Just like MySpace.
 
Facebook isn't a fad. It is a tool and until something better comes along it won't go away.
 
Jospeh said:
Facebook isn't a fad. It is a tool and until something better comes along it won't go away.
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^^This^^

The amount of people calling Facebook nothing but "a fad" on a forum full of people that generally love new tech and are willing to embrace it amazes me. I'm sure people said email was also nothing but a fad.
 
Steve said:
It’s not that I think the site is bad, I just think that something else will come along and do to Facebook what Facebook did to MySpace.
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+1. Facebook will make money for a very long time, but its influence will die as quickly as it grew when the next great idea comes around. The internet exists still as the party hard and die young evolution.
 
Zuckerberg's ego and stubbornness will be the downfall of facebook. People will never tire of looking into each other's lives, it's simply a matter of maintaining dominance from a business perspective. If Facebook is managed properly, it will continue forever. (imo, managed properly involves buying up anything that could realistically compete)
 
I cannot stand Facebook I hope it does fade away. Its all a popularity contest to me who can get the most friends ect ect. Or just nosey people who have no life of their own. Where do you think the term "Facebook stalking" came from.

Another teenie-bopper fad.
 
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