Kepler IS Coming Q1 & FF Crystal Ball Stuff

L

Lord_Exodia

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Sep 29, 2005
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Okay, so it's that time again. As usual I contacted some inside sources I have and as usual they aren't talking. Still I got some information that I just want to share with the community that may make things interesting.

First let me provide this link

http://www.fudzilla.com/graphics/item/25396-kepler-to-show-its-face-in-q1-2012

Fudo Says Q1... and so do I!

In fact I was on the phone with my inside contact at a nvidia aib partner and we were talking about kepler. He has a very high integrity and work ethic and can't talk about things he's under NDA for and believe me he knows everything there is to know about what's coming from nvidia.

While on the phone I began joking with him. He was eating some powdered donuts made commonly at pizzarias called zeppoles. I guess that's how you spell it. So I told him that it is probably coming sooner rather than later. So I told him "I'm gonna predict that the high end card called GTX 680 will come on... ummmm 02/12/2012" Just that moment he dropped his cell phone and began coughing and laughing. Said he inhaled some powdered sugar and said he can't confirm or deny anything. :D

I was getting 02122012 just cause it sounds nice 2-12-2012 kind of like a good launch number.

I think I guessed the launch day right on the nose and he almost shat himself although he stood firm and didn't say anything concrete.

Again, take this with a grain of salt but I am convinced in my gut that this is true.

Kepler high end will still be GTX 680/670, mainstream GTX 660 etc.. contrary to popular belief and misinformation circling around

All the lower end stuff will be rebrands @ 28nm for mobile and oem as well as slightly overclocked desktop cards based off fermi 2.0 with different memory configurations and speeds. Those are likely the GT 630/620 GTs 650 GTX 650 Ti etc... Kepler will be the mainstream GTX 660 and GTX 660 Ti, GTX 670, GTX 680. GTX 690 etc...

The refresh in the interim leading up to maxwell will be GTX 700 series from top to bottom ALL being new Kepler 28nm parts and no refreshes of Fermi 2.0. So if your into low end gpu's nothing exciting is coming until very late this year or early next year in the GTX 700 series.

My FF Crystal ball has spoken. ;) Oh and Happy new years People

So yes, I'm saying Kepler will be here in just over 1 month. I know sounds crazy right :)
 
i think he choked on the sugar laughing at you because it isn't coming out any where near that date.. see what happens when you base a hunch off some one choking on sugar.. nice try though.
 
As long as it's out with Ivy Bridge.

Granted if it does get released in February that would pretty much bury AMD.

Grain of salt, blah, blah, blah.

Either way it looks like CES should be interesting this year, not just from NVIDIA, but from everybody.
 
Being a single card/monitor guy, I will be happy if the GTX580 replacement comes out any time before my planned 3770K update, that should keep me rocking for a few years!
 
HohnyF said:
uh... my thought exactly

pretty much shattered my expectations of an early high-end
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odds are what we will end up seeing released in february is the mid range 28nm fermi 2.0 spin off cards just so Nvidia can say they have released a 28nm card. there just isn't enough evidence that Nvidia actually has any kepler based cards.
 
sirmonkey1985 said:
i think he choked on the sugar laughing at you because it isn't coming out any where near that date.. see what happens when you base a hunch off some one choking on sugar.. nice try though.
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LOL, maybe your right, however if I were talking to a stranger that would seem like a strong possibility. However this is a long time friend. With scenarios like that you kind of get a gut feeling when things happen and my gut feeling was he was thinking Holy Shit! rather than LOL he's sooo off.

As I stated in the OP, take it with a grain of salt, My gut tells me that this is right. Nowhere in the OP does it say to flame or mock me though so watch it there buddy :D
 
Mary Jo Foley said that Windows 8 final was being released a couple of months ago.
 
sounds good to me. And I think IB will be April, so that gives some extra time to get some more of those cards in the channels :)
 
Can't come soon enough. A GTX 670 will be the final piece to complete my new rig.
 
That would certainly be ideal, as I'd love to be able to compare Kepler against a 7970 within a reasonable time period.
 
addictedto60fps said:
That would certainly be ideal, as I'd love to be able to compare Kepler against a 7970 within a reasonable time period.
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You know I'm starting to think that AMD delaying the 7950 to February may come back to bite them. Who's going to want a 7950 if GTX 680 and 670 come along and kick 7970 in the nuts. Well... who knows maybe AMD will respond accordingly with price adjustments. To me, it's not a question of IF kepler will outperform Southern Islands it's simply by how much. With that said I'm gonna guess that GTX 680 will be about 25-30% faster than 7970
 
Lord_Exodia said:
You know I'm starting to think that AMD delaying the 7950 to February may come back to bite them. Who's going to want a 7950 if GTX 680 and 670 come along and kick 7970 in the nuts. Well... who knows maybe AMD will respond accordingly with price adjustments. To me, it's not a question of IF kepler will outperform Southern Islands it's simply by how much. With that said I'm gonna guess that GTX 680 will be about 25-30% faster than 7970
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Yeah, assuming Kepler comes out in February, and that's a very big if, agreed, it would hurt sales of 7950 if Kepler truly brings it on the performance front. I'd be ecstatic if we see a 25 - 30% increase over a 7970. If that were to come to fruition, the question is when. If it really is February, I can wait. But if it isn't coming out until, say, near the end of the year, well, I'm not sure I can wait that long.
 
Fuck it. I'm buying two 7970's on release and if the high end Kepler comes out in February, I'll buy two of those too! :p
 
Guys, the link I posted in the OP is actually true. There are SEVERAL inside sources in Nvidia are confirming that Kepler is slated for Q1 of this year so at the latest March. Fuad has gotten several leads from different sources from different continents that work for nvidia and/or are in the loop. So keep in mind that there is a very high probability that it will hit no later than March 31st. So if my prediction of 02/12/2012 doesn't come true you wont be waiting that much longer after that assuming they wait until the very last day of the quarter to ship the cards for sale.

From what I'm hearing, cards/coolers are already done and the final bios for the card has been certified. the actual final clock speeds are being determined still, perhaps they are waiting for final #s from AMD's 7950 to lock them in.
 
1st quarter would be perfect, as it makes the wait more tolerable for me - lol. I just want to see some benchmarks against a 7970, please. :)
 
Lord_Exodia said:
You know I'm starting to think that AMD delaying the 7950 to February may come back to bite them. Who's going to want a 7950 if GTX 680 and 670 come along and kick 7970 in the nuts. Well... who knows maybe AMD will respond accordingly with price adjustments. To me, it's not a question of IF kepler will outperform Southern Islands it's simply by how much. With that said I'm gonna guess that GTX 680 will be about 25-30% faster than 7970
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the odds of that happening are going to be slim.. i'd laugh my ass off if all they got was a 10% increase over the 7970 but add an extra 90-100w just to do it.. honestly after seeing the asinine power usage of the gtx 400 series and 500 series i have my doubts that they could pull a rabbit out of their ass and fix it with kepler but we'll see.
 
sirmonkey1985 said:
the odds of that happening are going to be slim.. i'd laugh my ass off if all they got was a 10% increase over the 7970 but add an extra 90-100w just to do it.. honestly after seeing the asinine power usage of the gtx 400 series and 500 series i have my doubts that they could pull a rabbit out of their ass and fix it with kepler but we'll see.
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Agreed, anything less than 30% faster is unacceptable for massive power usage that they are trending. Unless they fix the power consumption issues their cards better be much better performance wise. The scenario you just posted is scary as hell. only +10% performance and uses way more power. I'd simply buy the 7970 and overclock it if that were the case. We'd all have to agree that that card would be a joke.
 
Lord_Exodia said:
Agreed, anything less than 30% faster is unacceptable for massive power usage that they are trending. Unless they fix the power consumption issues their cards better be much better performance wise. The scenario you just posted is scary as hell. only +10% performance and uses way more power. I'd simply buy the 7970 and overclock it if that were the case. We'd all have to agree that that card would be a joke.
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A 10% increase in performance that uses way more power would be disastrous. If that were the case, agreed, I would also buy and just overclock the 7970.
 
Very skeptical... if Kepler is ready for Q1 2012 why did Nvidia not counter with a paper launch of their own?

Unless we are going to see a paper launch this quarter, availability in Q2.
 
x3sphere said:
Very skeptical... if Kepler is ready for Q1 2012 why did Nvidia not counter with a paper launch of their own?

Unless we are going to see a paper launch this quarter, availability in Q2.
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Why would Nvidia shot itself in a foot with a paper launch that counters AMD's paper launch.

AMD is not doing nearly as good as Nvidia with its current GPU lineup.
Their gfx division earnings for 9 months of 2011 are embarrassing,
and the last quarter, because all of 7xxx buzz will proly be even more so.

AMD needed new lineup desperatly, if it was up to Nvidia they would sit on this until hell freezes over
 
x3sphere said:
Very skeptical... if Kepler is ready for Q1 2012 why did Nvidia not counter with a paper launch of their own?
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Paper launches are fairly stupid IMO.

You kill sales of what's currently on sale.

"But then they are going to buy new things, right?"

Maybe. Unless that consumer is like me and doesn't mind waiting a couple weeks to get a few bucks off of old part. And if I'm buying a GPU to try and attain a specific goal (45 fps in BF3 for example) I could buy a 7760 instead of the likely more expensive 6870. All around you lose money, save that very, very small percentage of GPU buyers that have to have the newest of the new. In which case, they likely would have bought what you had anyway.
 
Has anyone seen this? Could be BS

nvidiagtx780performance.png
 
HohnyF said:
Why would Nvidia shot itself in a foot with a paper launch that counters AMD's paper launch.

AMD is not doing nearly as good as Nvidia with its current GPU lineup.
Their gfx division earnings for 9 months of 2011 are embarrassing,
and the last quarter, because all of 7xxx buzz will proly be even more so.

AMD needed new lineup desperatly, if it was up to Nvidia they would sit on this until hell freezes over
Click to expand...

Nvidia's mobile division did very well in 2011. Their "discrete" GPU division lost quite a bit of market share to Intel and AMD in 2011.
 
From what I hear is Nvidia is going to announce something around Feb 18th ......

And I will come back in this thread and quote myself and say " I told you so " ....
 
@LE - You really shouldn't post such possibly identifying, specific details about your contact.
 
I'll hold out hope that this guy is right or at least close.
I'm really itching for a kick-ass single card and I think these should fit the bill.
 
they are only releases the lower models of the kepler series first correct?

i thought expected launch of the enthusiast cards are still 3rd Q2012
 
Elmy said:
From what I hear is Nvidia is going to announce something around Feb 18th ......

And I will come back in this thread and quote myself and say " I told you so " ....
Click to expand...

you are moving the date back now? still waiting for my pm ;)
 
TheCommander said:
Nvidia's mobile division did very well in 2011. Their "discrete" GPU division lost quite a bit of market share to Intel and AMD in 2011.
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Intel does not make "discrete" GPU's. NVIDIA gained marketshare from AMD in the discrete market. I'm guessing you just made this up for whatever reason.
 
xorbe said:
@LE - You really shouldn't post such possibly identifying, specific details about your contact.
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Male, under NDA, easts zeppoles and has a cell phone. I bet they are triangulating his location as we speak :p:D
 
tricky0502 said:
kyle, brent

are either of you under NDA's with nvidia?
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They may not be yet, as my contact would be under NDA much earilier than a hardware reviewer as they are working with engineering samples and qualifying bioses and things like that. Thing is, I'm not sure as my contact still holds firm and can't even confirm for me 100% that kepler exists let alone that he has a engineering sample now etc..

That's the usual drill with new card launches that he always goes through. I always try to squeeze info out and althogh he loves it, he never gives me anything, except I feel this time he accidentally kinda did ;)
 
Lord_Exodia said:
Guys, the link I posted in the OP is actually true. There are SEVERAL inside sources in Nvidia are confirming that Kepler is slated for Q1 of this year so at the latest March. Fuad has gotten several leads from different sources from different continents that work for nvidia and/or are in the loop. So keep in mind that there is a very high probability that it will hit no later than March 31st. So if my prediction of 02/12/2012 doesn't come true you wont be waiting that much longer after that assuming they wait until the very last day of the quarter to ship the cards for sale.

From what I'm hearing, cards/coolers are already done and the final bios for the card has been certified. the actual final clock speeds are being determined still, perhaps they are waiting for final #s from AMD's 7950 to lock them in.
Click to expand...

One of the guys here, Brent or Kyle posted in another thread that Kepler wouldn't be released before the end of March and even that was a very, very optimistic date and probably wont happen. Looking for the post but can't find it.
 
Yeah, wasn't there a roadmap showing that it would only be the crappy mid-low range cards released first? I doubt we'll see a high end Kepler for a loooong while. It'd be nice to get it early, but highly doubtful.
 
reaper12 said:
One of the guys here, Brent or Kyle posted in another thread that Kepler wouldn't be released before the end of March and even that was a very, very optimistic date and probably wont happen. Looking for the post but can't find it.
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I remember that post, it was Kyle B. this was a post he made about 1 1/2 months ago and at that time nothing was happenning. Things can change quickly in this industry. Hell even AMD didn't seem like they were going to be available until at least mid to late q1 this year around that same time.

InternationalHat said:
Yeah, wasn't there a roadmap showing that it would only be the crappy mid-low range cards released first? I doubt we'll see a high end Kepler for a loooong while. It'd be nice to get it early, but highly doubtful.
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This will never happen. Nvidia and AMD always release the high end cards first then work their way down. There were soo many people believing the mid range 7000 series cards were coming from AMD as well due to leaks but that never happened and I voiced this from the very beginning. In order to launch a mainstream cards yields on the architechture and 28nm process (in this case) so that they could crank out hundreds of thousands of GPU's so that they can launch enough cards to meet demand.

This is why mainstream and low end cards never come out first. Those cards are needed in ridiculous quantities, unlike a high end card where 4000-5000 will suffice for the whole world.

The rumor that the mainstream cards is coming first is completely bogus. Just as bogus as the rumors were than the 7000 mid range cards were coming first too.
 
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